TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152892
Played Sep 18Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119711117911118
Mateusz Galus
Away
1.66
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:52 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
119711117911118
H2H Marcin Stepien 31–49 Mateusz Galus Marcin Stepien has won 31 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:52What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Galus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-49 in 80
Galus
Wrong
gap of 18 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1638 vs Galus 1641
Galus
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 80% vs Galus 40%
Stepien
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 60% vs Galus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien +3 · Galus -1
Stepien
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Galus) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 2.05 / Galus 1.66
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Galus)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13152892
Stepien2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 30 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Galus1.66
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 125 of 225
Up 2–0, closes it98% 61 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 91 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien6wins
AwayGalus4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien85.7%6 of 7
AwayGalus100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien7Galus3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Stepien5Galus5n = 10split evenly
S3Stepien4Galus6n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S4Stepien4Galus4n = 8split evenly
S5Stepien2Galus1n = 3Stepien took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienGalusS − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.637.0+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime653 / 1169 vs 356 / 67055.9%53.1%653 / 1169 vs 356 / 670Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GalusStepien 2.05/Galus 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 13:10M. Stepien531181310113M. Galus48811111262
LSep 17 · 08:30M. Stepien26911511M. Galus4111811113
WSep 10 · 11:30M. Stepien4211911113M. Galus30811471
LAug 31 · 05:30M. Stepien4211118392M. Galus47591111113
WAug 30 · 19:35M. Stepien341211113M. Galus2610880
LAug 27 · 09:30M. Stepien1711240M. Galus351311113
WAug 25 · 07:00M. Stepien46118511113M. Galus4291111292
LAug 20 · 13:30M. Stepien369111151M. Galus4311813113
WAug 20 · 08:30M. Stepien4011711113M. Galus30411871
WAug 18 · 11:30M. Stepien4011117113M. Galus28551171
M. Stepien10
WSep 18 · 09:30P. Gola2.8012541152M. Stepien1.391011117113WSep 18 · 08:30M. Stepien2.501111113D. Skvarskyi1.405580WSep 18 · 07:30D. Stapor2.00761131M. Stepien1.6611119113LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stepien1.8512111110102M. Lysakowski1.85147912123WSep 17 · 13:10M. Galus1.96811111262M. Stepien1.761181310113WSep 17 · 12:00S. Wloszek2.551251161M. Stepien1.46101113113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113LSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus1.6111811113M. Stepien2.15911511LSep 17 · 06:30D. Skvarskyi1.40111481113M. Stepien2.75512111132WSep 17 · 05:30S. Radlo2.371112100M. Stepien1.521314123
M. Galus10
LSep 18 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.57611118113M. Galus2.2511961162WSep 18 · 09:00D. Stapor2.001191081M. Galus1.7091112113LSep 18 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.661111153M. Galus2.0567130WSep 18 · 05:00P. Gola2.408670M. Galus1.501111113LSep 17 · 13:10M. Galus1.96811111262M. Stepien1.761181310113WSep 17 · 11:30M. Galus1.95127811133M. Lysakowski1.751011119112LSep 17 · 09:30D. Skvarskyi1.411113113M. Galus2.7091190WSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus1.6111811113M. Stepien2.15911511WSep 17 · 07:30S. Radlo2.029460M. Galus1.681111113LSep 17 · 07:00M. Galus1.474911111S. Wloszek2.5011117133
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