TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13144911
Played Sep 17Finished
Dmytro Skvarskyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151412811111113
Marcin Stepien
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:12 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Skvarskyi to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
1151412811111113
H2H Dmytro Skvarskyi 19–3 Marcin Stepien Marcin Stepien has won 3 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skvarskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-3 in 22
Skvarskyi
Correct
gap of 16 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvarskyi 1780 vs Stepien 1616
Skvarskyi
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvarskyi 80% vs Stepien 60%
Skvarskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvarskyi 70% vs Stepien 50%
Skvarskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvarskyi +2 · Stepien +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Skvarskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvarskyi 1.40 / Stepien 2.75
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Skvarskyi)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13144911
Skvarskyi1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 71 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Stepien2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 30 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvarskyi8wins
AwayStepien2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvarskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvarskyi100%6 of 6
AwayStepien50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvarskyi6Stepien4n = 10Skvarskyi took 6 of 10
S2Skvarskyi7Stepien3n = 10Skvarskyi took 7 of 10
S3Skvarskyi7Stepien3n = 10Skvarskyi took 7 of 10
S4Skvarskyi2Stepien5n = 7Stepien took 5 of 7
S5Skvarskyi4Stepien0n = 4Skvarskyi took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvarskyiStepienSkvarskyi − StepienBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.935.0+5.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvarskyiStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 222 vs 650 / 116868.9%55.7%153 / 222 vs 650 / 1168Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvarskyiSkvarskyi 1.40/Stepien 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.6%
Skvarskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvarskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:30D. Skvarskyi45111481113M. Stepien42512111132
WSep 14 · 07:30D. Skvarskyi50135138113M. Stepien471111111132
WSep 12 · 09:05D. Skvarskyi371312123M. Stepien311110100
WSep 10 · 06:10D. Skvarskyi331111113M. Stepien219480
WSep 7 · 12:00D. Skvarskyi50811911113M. Stepien3211511142
LSep 1 · 11:30D. Skvarskyi336511111M. Stepien3811113133
LJul 17 · 11:00D. Skvarskyi352111751M. Stepien4711619113
WJul 15 · 11:30D. Skvarskyi4011711113M. Stepien31911651
WApr 13 · 09:00D. Skvarskyi51911119113M. Stepien4511861192
WApr 12 · 23:45D. Skvarskyi351111133M. Stepien1614110
D. Skvarskyi10
WSep 17 · 05:00D. Skvarskyi1.981111113M. Lysakowski1.755680WSep 14 · 13:00D. Skvarskyi1.757111110113B. Molka1.9711481292LSep 14 · 11:00B. Molka2.40651111143D. Skvarskyi1.51111168122WSep 14 · 10:00D. Skvarskyi1.331112113P. Gola3.1051050WSep 14 · 09:00D. Skvarskyi1.411111113M. Burkacki2.602950WSep 14 · 07:30D. Skvarskyi1.50135138113M. Stepien2.401111111132LSep 14 · 05:30D. Skvarskyi1.49351161S. Wloszek2.4511116113LSep 12 · 14:05D. Skvarskyi1.821168101M. Lysakowski1.8881111123WSep 12 · 12:05D. Skvarskyi1.9811117113M. Lysakowski1.73891171WSep 12 · 10:35D. Skvarskyi1.50611511113S. Radlo2.3511511582
M. Stepien10
WSep 17 · 05:30S. Radlo2.371112100M. Stepien1.521314123WSep 14 · 12:30M. Stepien—1115613113P. Gola—917111182LSep 14 · 11:30M. Stepien1.461141161M. Burkacki2.4861113113LSep 14 · 09:30B. Molka2.4091111113M. Stepien1.50116781WSep 14 · 08:30M. Stepien1.39891111113S. Wloszek2.7011119572LSep 14 · 07:30D. Skvarskyi1.50135138113M. Stepien2.401111111132WSep 14 · 06:00M. Stepien1.401111113P. Gola2.756550LSep 13 · 23:40M. Stepien1.497880B. Molka2.451111113WSep 13 · 21:35M. Lysakowski2.00115571M. Stepien1.7181111113LSep 13 · 20:35P. Gola2.4511911113M. Stepien1.49711891
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