TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129000
Played Sep 14Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.46
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1164111113611––
Mateusz Burkacki
Away
2.48
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
1164111113611––
H2H Marcin Stepien 2–0 Mateusz Burkacki Mateusz Burkacki has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:21What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1619 vs Burkacki 1524
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 40% vs Burkacki 60%
Burkacki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 60% vs Burkacki 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien -1 · Burkacki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stepien)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.46 / Burkacki 2.48
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stepien)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13129000
Stepien1.46
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 194 of 332
Up 2–0, closes it94% 135 of 143
Up 1–0, closes it81% 158 of 194
Burkacki2.48
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 52 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStepien2wins
AwayBurkacki0wins
Stepien leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStepienBurkackiS − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match34.019.5+14.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime652 / 1175 vs 90 / 22355.5%40.4%652 / 1175 vs 90 / 223Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.46/Burkacki 2.48
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Burkacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien351113113M. Burkacki2471160
WSep 4 · 11:30M. Stepien331111113M. Burkacki157440
M. Stepien10
LSep 14 · 09:30B. Molka2.4091111113M. Stepien1.50116781WSep 14 · 08:30M. Stepien1.39891111113S. Wloszek2.7011119572LSep 14 · 07:30D. Skvarskyi1.50135138113M. Stepien2.401111111132WSep 14 · 06:00M. Stepien1.401111113P. Gola2.756550LSep 13 · 23:40M. Stepien1.497880B. Molka2.451111113WSep 13 · 21:35M. Lysakowski2.00115571M. Stepien1.7181111113LSep 13 · 20:35P. Gola2.4511911113M. Stepien1.49711891WSep 13 · 19:05S. Wloszek2.60111051152M. Stepien1.41912116113WSep 13 · 17:05B. Molka2.4056100M. Stepien1.511111123WSep 13 · 15:05S. Radlo2.25313771M. Stepien1.54111111113
M. Burkacki10
WSep 14 · 10:30S. Wloszek1.50961191M. Burkacki2.3611117113LSep 14 · 09:00D. Skvarskyi1.411111113M. Burkacki2.602950WSep 14 · 07:00P. Gola1.5211115362M. Burkacki2.37551111113WSep 14 · 05:00B. Molka1.54128361M. Burkacki2.25101111113LSep 9 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi2.5351111133M. Burkacki1.471187111WSep 9 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.0561111113S. Wloszek1.66118971LSep 9 · 09:30P. Gola1.561012118113M. Burkacki2.18121091152LSep 9 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.5011711752D. Skvarskyi1.47911911113WSep 9 · 07:30M. Lysakowski1.39812100M. Burkacki2.801114123WSep 9 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.1811118113D. Stapor1.56961191
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