TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13126555
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118511511711––
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.71
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
118511511711––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 103–125 Marcin Stepien Michal Lysakowski has won 103 of their 228 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 21:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
103-125 in 228
Stepien
Correct
gap of 22 in 228, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1666 vs Stepien 1621
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 60% vs Stepien 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 70% vs Stepien 50%
Lysakowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski -1 · Stepien -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepien)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 2.00 / Stepien 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lysakowski)-0.1pp
TT Cup · #13126555
Lysakowski2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 86 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Stepien1.71
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 190 of 326
Up 2–0, closes it94% 134 of 142
Up 1–0, closes it81% 156 of 192
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski7wins
AwayStepien3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayStepien50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski6Stepien4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S2Lysakowski5Stepien5n = 10split evenly
S3Lysakowski7Stepien3n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S4Lysakowski3Stepien3n = 6split evenly
S5Lysakowski3Stepien1n = 4Lysakowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiStepienL − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.3+2.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 1320 vs 649 / 116948.9%55.5%646 / 1320 vs 649 / 1169Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiLysakowski 2.00/Stepien 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 11:05M. Lysakowski331111113M. Stepien218850
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski50124911143M. Stepien521011118122
WSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski351113113M. Stepien2781180
WSep 1 · 13:30M. Lysakowski351111133M. Stepien2678110
LSep 1 · 10:30M. Lysakowski389114141M. Stepien4511711163
WAug 31 · 09:00M. Lysakowski52912128113M. Stepien461110101142
WAug 30 · 21:05M. Lysakowski4211911113M. Stepien33911941
LAug 25 · 08:00M. Lysakowski30910110M. Stepien361112133
LAug 18 · 13:40M. Lysakowski4311511972M. Stepien50811911113
WAug 18 · 06:00M. Lysakowski49791111113M. Stepien4711118892
M. Lysakowski10
LSep 13 · 19:35S. Radlo2.201171211113M. Lysakowski1.60711101392WSep 13 · 18:35M. Lysakowski1.6612119133P. Gola2.0010811111WSep 13 · 17:35S. Wloszek2.6068110M. Lysakowski1.441111133LSep 13 · 16:05M. Lysakowski1.50881271B. Molka2.40111110113WSep 12 · 14:05D. Skvarskyi1.821168101M. Lysakowski1.8881111123LSep 12 · 12:05D. Skvarskyi1.9811117113M. Lysakowski1.73891171WSep 12 · 11:05M. Lysakowski2.051111113M. Stepien1.688850WSep 12 · 10:05M. Lysakowski1.7121511143P. Gola2.0019114121WSep 12 · 08:35M. Lysakowski1.5713111211113S. Radlo2.151113101372WSep 12 · 05:30M. Lysakowski2.2511115113M. Ovcharenko1.54841181
M. Stepien10
LSep 13 · 20:35P. Gola2.4511911113M. Stepien1.49711891WSep 13 · 19:05S. Wloszek2.60111051152M. Stepien1.41912116113WSep 13 · 17:05B. Molka2.4056100M. Stepien1.511111123WSep 13 · 15:05S. Radlo2.25313771M. Stepien1.54111111113LSep 12 · 13:05M. Stepien2.158760M. Ovcharenko1.581111113LSep 12 · 11:05M. Lysakowski2.051111113M. Stepien1.688850LSep 12 · 09:05D. Skvarskyi1.441312123M. Stepien2.601110100WSep 12 · 08:05M. Stepien1.441111113P. Gola2.507260LSep 12 · 06:00S. Radlo2.2511116113M. Stepien1.54981191WSep 10 · 12:40S. Radlo2.308640M. Stepien1.551111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lysakowski1 of 1 neutral
M. Stepien
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