TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117736
Played Sep 12Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118114511118––
Maksim Ovcharenko
Away
1.54
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:03 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
118114511118––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 8–11 Maksim Ovcharenko Michal Lysakowski has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 20h before this match
Lysakowski beat Ovcharenko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Ovcharenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Ovcharenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1627 vs Ovcharenko 1700
Ovcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 40% vs Ovcharenko 80%
Ovcharenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 50% vs Ovcharenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski -2 · Ovcharenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovcharenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 2.25 / Ovcharenko 1.54
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13117736
Lysakowski2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 100 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 54
Ovcharenko1.54
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 39 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski4wins
AwayOvcharenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski75%3 of 4
AwayOvcharenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski4Ovcharenko6n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Lysakowski4Ovcharenko6n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Lysakowski3Ovcharenko7n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S4Lysakowski4Ovcharenko2n = 6Lysakowski took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiOvcharenkoL − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.236.1−2.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiOvcharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime639 / 1310 vs 115 / 18548.8%62.2%639 / 1310 vs 115 / 185Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoLysakowski 2.25/Ovcharenko 1.54
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.6%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 09:30M. Lysakowski—1211113M. Ovcharenko—10460
LSep 4 · 10:00M. Lysakowski—1281341M. Ovcharenko—101115113
LSep 3 · 11:30M. Lysakowski—711411M. Ovcharenko—11711113
LFeb 28 · 11:35M. Lysakowski—101181192M. Ovcharenko—128116113
LFeb 27 · 14:10M. Lysakowski—41050M. Ovcharenko—1112113
WFeb 27 · 06:30M. Lysakowski—91111113M. Ovcharenko—118771
LFeb 25 · 12:00M. Lysakowski—10960M. Ovcharenko—1211113
LFeb 24 · 13:00M. Lysakowski—3750M. Ovcharenko—1111113
WFeb 20 · 07:00M. Lysakowski—1151011113M. Ovcharenko—61112292
WFeb 19 · 10:00M. Lysakowski—12611113M. Ovcharenko—1011471
M. Lysakowski10
LSep 11 · 12:30M. Lysakowski—1161281P. Gola—81114113LSep 11 · 11:00M. Lysakowski1.6311111571B. Molka2.0591317113WSep 11 · 09:30M. Lysakowski2.001211113M. Ovcharenko1.7110460LSep 11 · 08:00M. Lysakowski1.73871591D. Stapor1.98111113113WSep 11 · 06:30M. Lysakowski1.781111163P. Gola1.9179140LSep 11 · 05:00M. Lysakowski1.668590M. Galus2.021111113WSep 9 · 13:10M. Lysakowski1.5813116133D. Stapor2.1411611111LSep 9 · 11:00P. Gola1.8311913123M. Lysakowski1.8781111101WSep 9 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.58111111113D. Stapor2.20981361WSep 9 · 09:00M. Lysakowski1.41911115113S. Wloszek2.6011591182
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 12 · 07:35D. Skvarskyi1.71111110992M. Ovcharenko2.00771211113WSep 11 · 13:30D. Stapor2.559840M. Ovcharenko1.411111113WSep 11 · 11:30M. Ovcharenko1.661111113M. Galus2.104550LSep 11 · 09:30M. Lysakowski2.001211113M. Ovcharenko1.7110460WSep 11 · 08:30M. Ovcharenko1.341111113P. Gola3.009630WSep 11 · 07:30B. Molka2.6541111692M. Ovcharenko1.43117811113LSep 11 · 06:00M. Ovcharenko1.36111270D. Stapor2.751314113LSep 10 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.831611113M. Ovcharenko1.8714890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko1.36126911113S. Wloszek2.90101111982LSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko1.4981090M. Galus2.341112113
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