TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114338
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.66
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115115––––
Mateusz Galus
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
47 points played in total.
Set by set
114115115––––
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 2–1 Mateusz Galus Mateusz Galus has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:27What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1677 vs Galus 1635
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 40% vs Galus 60%
Galus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 50% vs Galus 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko -1 · Galus -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.66 / Galus 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13114338
Ovcharenko1.66
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 35 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Galus2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 36 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOvcharenko2wins
AwayGalus1wins
Ovcharenko leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko2Galus1n = 3Ovcharenko took 2 of 3
S2Ovcharenko1Galus2n = 3Galus took 2 of 3
S3Ovcharenko1Galus2n = 3Galus took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoGalusO − GBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.734.0+2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 183 vs 350 / 66161.8%53%113 / 183 vs 350 / 661Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.66/Galus 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko—81090M. Galus—1112113
WFeb 25 · 10:30M. Ovcharenko—11713113M. Galus—7111151
WFeb 24 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko—11118113M. Galus—971171
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 11 · 13:30D. Stapor2.559840M. Ovcharenko1.411111113LSep 11 · 09:30M. Lysakowski2.001211113M. Ovcharenko1.7110460WSep 11 · 08:30M. Ovcharenko1.341111113P. Gola3.009630WSep 11 · 07:30B. Molka2.6541111692M. Ovcharenko1.43117811113LSep 11 · 06:00M. Ovcharenko1.36111270D. Stapor2.751314113LSep 10 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.831611113M. Ovcharenko1.8714890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko1.36126911113S. Wloszek2.90101111982LSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko1.4981090M. Galus2.341112113LSep 10 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko1.8511311692D. Skvarskyi1.85911811113WSep 10 · 06:30M. Ovcharenko1.441111113S. Radlo2.506760
M. Galus10
WSep 11 · 13:00B. Molka1.916790M. Galus1.801111113LSep 11 · 10:30P. Gola2.10121310113M. Galus1.6010111291LSep 11 · 09:00B. Molka2.2011911113M. Galus1.60911971WSep 11 · 07:00D. Stapor1.95114141142M. Galus1.74911169113WSep 11 · 05:00M. Lysakowski1.668590M. Galus2.021111113WSep 10 · 13:10S. Wloszek2.8071170M. Galus1.391113113LSep 10 · 11:30M. Galus1.66811471M. Stepien2.0511911113WSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko1.4981090M. Galus2.341112113WSep 10 · 08:30M. Galus1.7414912113S. Radlo1.9512111041LSep 10 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.558111110143M. Galus1.46116412122
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