TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111576
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
1.66
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511911––––
Mateusz Galus
Away
2.02
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
811511911––––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 45–43 Mateusz Galus Mateusz Galus has won 43 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:16What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-43 in 88
Lysakowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1658 vs Galus 1641
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 60% vs Galus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 60% vs Galus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +1 · Galus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.66 / Galus 2.02
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Lysakowski)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13111576
Lysakowski1.66
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 192 of 346
Up 2–0, closes it91% 123 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it75% 163 of 217
Galus2.02
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 36 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski6wins
AwayGalus4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski75%6 of 8
AwayGalusn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski8Galus2n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S2Lysakowski4Galus6n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S3Lysakowski6Galus4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S4Lysakowski2Galus4n = 6Galus took 4 of 6
S5Lysakowski2Galus1n = 3Lysakowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiGalusL − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.9+2.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime639 / 1310 vs 350 / 66148.8%53%639 / 1310 vs 350 / 661Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiLysakowski 1.66/Galus 2.02
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 13:30M. Lysakowski—11111081M. Galus—61312113
WAug 31 · 10:30M. Lysakowski—1111113M. Galus—7780
LAug 30 · 17:35M. Lysakowski—7990M. Galus—1111113
LAug 26 · 07:00M. Lysakowski—1111151182M. Galus—129177113
WAug 25 · 13:10M. Lysakowski—14911113M. Galus—1211691
LAug 25 · 09:30M. Lysakowski—118371M. Galus—91111113
WAug 19 · 09:00M. Lysakowski—1110119113M. Galus—81291132
WAug 18 · 07:00M. Lysakowski—1111123M. Galus—98100
WAug 3 · 10:30M. Lysakowski—1111113M. Galus—9690
WAug 2 · 23:35M. Lysakowski—119116113M. Galus—81181142
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 9 · 13:10M. Lysakowski1.5813116133D. Stapor2.1411611111LSep 9 · 11:00P. Gola1.8311913123M. Lysakowski1.8781111101WSep 9 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.58111111113D. Stapor2.20981361WSep 9 · 09:00M. Lysakowski1.41911115113S. Wloszek2.6011591182LSep 9 · 07:30M. Lysakowski1.39812100M. Burkacki2.801114123WSep 9 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.761411113D. Skvarskyi1.9012460LSep 7 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.8711111410113M. Lysakowski1.83613121232WSep 7 · 11:30M. Lysakowski1.361111411123M. Burkacki2.75851113102WSep 7 · 09:30S. Radlo2.101148101M. Lysakowski1.6091111123LSep 7 · 08:30M. Lysakowski1.8613491132D. Skvarskyi1.831111116113
M. Galus10
WSep 10 · 13:10S. Wloszek2.8071170M. Galus1.391113113LSep 10 · 11:30M. Galus1.66811471M. Stepien2.0511911113WSep 10 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko1.4981090M. Galus2.341112113WSep 10 · 08:30M. Galus1.7414912113S. Radlo1.9512111041LSep 10 · 07:30S. Wloszek2.558111110143M. Galus1.46116412122LSep 10 · 07:00M. Galus2.2513781172D. Skvarskyi1.541111117113WAug 31 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.7211111081M. Galus1.9361312113WAug 31 · 12:00B. Molka2.316540M. Galus1.501111113LAug 31 · 10:30M. Galus1.917780M. Lysakowski1.781111113WAug 31 · 08:30S. Radlo1.83251141M. Galus1.8311119113
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