TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152509
Played Sep 18Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115115118––––
Dmytro Skvarskyi
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:18 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeDmytro Skvarskyi to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
115115118––––
H2H Marcin Stepien 3–19 Dmytro Skvarskyi Marcin Stepien has won 3 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (64%)
Skvarskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-19 in 22
Skvarskyi
Wrong
gap of 16 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1610 vs Skvarskyi 1752
Skvarskyi
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 60% vs Skvarskyi 40%
Stepien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 50% vs Skvarskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien +1 · Skvarskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Skvarskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvarskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 2.50 / Skvarskyi 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Skvarskyi)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13152509
Stepien2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 30 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Skvarskyi1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 71 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien2wins
AwaySkvarskyi8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvarskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien50%2 of 4
AwaySkvarskyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien4Skvarskyi6n = 10Skvarskyi took 6 of 10
S2Stepien3Skvarskyi7n = 10Skvarskyi took 7 of 10
S3Stepien3Skvarskyi7n = 10Skvarskyi took 7 of 10
S4Stepien5Skvarskyi2n = 7Stepien took 5 of 7
S5Stepien0Skvarskyi4n = 4Skvarskyi took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienSkvarskyiStepien − SkvarskyiBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.040.9−5.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienSkvarskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime651 / 1167 vs 156 / 22855.8%68.4%651 / 1167 vs 156 / 228Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvarskyiStepien 2.50/Skvarskyi 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Skvarskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 06:30M. Stepien42512111132D. Skvarskyi45111481113
LSep 14 · 07:30M. Stepien471111111132D. Skvarskyi50135138113
LSep 12 · 09:05M. Stepien311110100D. Skvarskyi371312123
LSep 10 · 06:10M. Stepien219480D. Skvarskyi331111113
LSep 7 · 12:00M. Stepien3211511142D. Skvarskyi50811911113
WSep 1 · 11:30M. Stepien3811113133D. Skvarskyi336511111
WJul 17 · 11:00M. Stepien4711619113D. Skvarskyi352111751
LJul 15 · 11:30M. Stepien31911651D. Skvarskyi4011711113
LApr 13 · 09:00M. Stepien4511861192D. Skvarskyi51911119113
LApr 12 · 23:45M. Stepien1614110D. Skvarskyi351111133
M. Stepien10
WSep 18 · 07:30D. Stapor2.00761131M. Stepien1.6611119113LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stepien1.8512111110102M. Lysakowski1.85147912123WSep 17 · 13:10M. Galus1.96811111262M. Stepien1.761181310113WSep 17 · 12:00S. Wloszek2.551251161M. Stepien1.46101113113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113LSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus1.6111811113M. Stepien2.15911511LSep 17 · 06:30D. Skvarskyi1.40111481113M. Stepien2.75512111132WSep 17 · 05:30S. Radlo2.371112100M. Stepien1.521314123WSep 14 · 12:30M. Stepien—1115613113P. Gola—917111182LSep 14 · 11:30M. Stepien1.461141161M. Burkacki2.4861113113
D. Skvarskyi10
LSep 18 · 06:30P. Gola3.3511117133D. Skvarskyi1.289311111WSep 18 · 05:30D. Stapor2.37118111482D. Skvarskyi1.52711616113LSep 17 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi2.1569111132S. Wloszek1.63111194113LSep 17 · 11:00D. Skvarskyi2.325311111S. Radlo1.5511117133WSep 17 · 09:30D. Skvarskyi1.411113113M. Galus2.7091190WSep 17 · 08:00D. Skvarskyi1.4711117113S. Wloszek2.50591161WSep 17 · 06:30D. Skvarskyi1.40111481113M. Stepien2.75512111132WSep 17 · 05:00D. Skvarskyi1.981111113M. Lysakowski1.755680WSep 14 · 13:00D. Skvarskyi1.757111110113B. Molka1.9711481292LSep 14 · 11:00B. Molka2.40651111143D. Skvarskyi1.51111168122
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