TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13146632
Played Sep 17Finished
Mateusz Galus
Home
1.96
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111811131210611
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.76
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
81111811131210611
H2H Mateusz Galus 49–30 Marcin Stepien Marcin Stepien has won 30 of their 79 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Galus beat Stepien 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepien)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.96 / Stepien 1.76
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stepien)+1.3pp
TT Cup · #13146632
Galus1.96
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 28 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Stepien1.76
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 190 of 326
Up 2–0, closes it94% 130 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it80% 153 of 191
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGalus4wins
AwayStepien6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGalus100%3 of 3
AwayStepien85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Galus3Stepien7n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Galus4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S3Galus6Stepien4n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S4Galus3Stepien4n = 7Stepien took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGalusStepienG − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.335.6−1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 666 vs 648 / 116753%55.5%353 / 666 vs 648 / 1167Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienGalus 1.96/Stepien 1.76
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus4111811113M. Stepien26911511
LSep 10 · 11:30M. Galus30811471M. Stepien4211911113
WAug 31 · 05:30M. Galus47591111113M. Stepien4211118392
LAug 30 · 19:35M. Galus2610880M. Stepien341211113
WAug 27 · 09:30M. Galus351311113M. Stepien1711240
LAug 25 · 07:00M. Galus4291111292M. Stepien46118511113
WAug 20 · 13:30M. Galus4311813113M. Stepien369111151
LAug 20 · 08:30M. Galus30411871M. Stepien4011711113
LAug 18 · 11:30M. Galus28551171M. Stepien4011117113
LAug 4 · 05:30M. Galus218760M. Stepien331111113
M. Galus10
WSep 17 · 11:30M. Galus1.95127811133M. Lysakowski1.751011119112LSep 17 · 09:30D. Skvarskyi1.411113113M. Galus2.7091190WSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus1.6111811113M. Stepien2.15911511WSep 17 · 07:30S. Radlo2.029460M. Galus1.681111113LSep 17 · 07:00M. Galus1.474911111S. Wloszek2.5011117133WSep 11 · 13:00B. Molka1.916790M. Galus1.801111113LSep 11 · 11:30M. Ovcharenko1.661111113M. Galus2.104550LSep 11 · 10:30P. Gola2.10121310113M. Galus1.6010111291LSep 11 · 09:00B. Molka2.2011911113M. Galus1.60911971WSep 11 · 07:00D. Stapor1.95114141142M. Galus1.74911169113
M. Stepien10
WSep 17 · 12:00S. Wloszek2.551251161M. Stepien1.46101113113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113LSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus1.6111811113M. Stepien2.15911511LSep 17 · 06:30D. Skvarskyi1.40111481113M. Stepien2.75512111132WSep 17 · 05:30S. Radlo2.371112100M. Stepien1.521314123WSep 14 · 12:30M. Stepien—1115613113P. Gola—917111182LSep 14 · 11:30M. Stepien1.461141161M. Burkacki2.4861113113LSep 14 · 09:30B. Molka2.4091111113M. Stepien1.50116781WSep 14 · 08:30M. Stepien1.39891111113S. Wloszek2.7011119572LSep 14 · 07:30D. Skvarskyi1.50135138113M. Stepien2.401111111132
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