TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13148842
Played Sep 18Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121411711910121012
Michal Lysakowski
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
108 points played in total.
Set by set
121411711910121012
H2H Marcin Stepien 126–105 Michal Lysakowski Michal Lysakowski has won 105 of their 231 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:00What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Lysakowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
126-105 in 231
Stepien
Wrong
gap of 21 in 231, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1600 vs Lysakowski 1666
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 40% vs Lysakowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 50% vs Lysakowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien +2 · Lysakowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lysakowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.85 / Lysakowski 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lysakowski)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13148842
Stepien1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Lysakowski1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien2wins
AwayLysakowski8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepienn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLysakowski87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien2Lysakowski8n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S2Stepien5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Stepien4Lysakowski6n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S4Stepien3Lysakowski4n = 7Lysakowski took 4 of 7
S5Stepien0Lysakowski3n = 3Lysakowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienLysakowskiS − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.640.7−3.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 1167 vs 654 / 132155.7%49.5%650 / 1167 vs 654 / 1321Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiStepien 1.85/Lysakowski 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stepien5412111110102M. Lysakowski54147912123
LSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien31811841M. Lysakowski4011711113
WSep 13 · 21:35M. Stepien4181111113M. Lysakowski28115571
LSep 12 · 11:05M. Stepien218850M. Lysakowski331111113
LSep 7 · 06:00M. Stepien521011118122M. Lysakowski50124911143
LSep 4 · 07:00M. Stepien2781180M. Lysakowski351113113
LSep 1 · 13:30M. Stepien2678110M. Lysakowski351111133
WSep 1 · 10:30M. Stepien4511711163M. Lysakowski389114141
LAug 31 · 09:00M. Stepien461110101142M. Lysakowski52912128113
LAug 30 · 21:05M. Stepien33911941M. Lysakowski4211911113
M. Stepien10
WSep 18 · 07:30D. Stapor2.00761131M. Stepien1.6611119113WSep 17 · 13:10M. Galus1.96811111262M. Stepien1.761181310113WSep 17 · 12:00S. Wloszek2.551251161M. Stepien1.46101113113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113LSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus1.6111811113M. Stepien2.15911511LSep 17 · 06:30D. Skvarskyi1.40111481113M. Stepien2.75512111132WSep 17 · 05:30S. Radlo2.371112100M. Stepien1.521314123WSep 14 · 12:30M. Stepien—1115613113P. Gola—917111182LSep 14 · 11:30M. Stepien1.461141161M. Burkacki2.4861113113LSep 14 · 09:30B. Molka2.4091111113M. Stepien1.50116781
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 17 · 12:40S. Radlo1.751310110M. Lysakowski1.981512133LSep 17 · 11:30M. Galus1.95127811133M. Lysakowski1.751011119112WSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113LSep 17 · 09:00S. Radlo2.501113113M. Lysakowski1.4791190LSep 17 · 06:00S. Wloszek2.3881113113M. Lysakowski1.491191171LSep 17 · 05:00D. Skvarskyi1.981111113M. Lysakowski1.755680WSep 15 · 13:40M. Lysakowski1.8310121111153S. Radlo1.88121475132WSep 15 · 11:30S. Radlo2.25531181M. Lysakowski1.5711117113WSep 15 · 10:30M. Burkacki2.8091211151M. Lysakowski1.3811148173WSep 15 · 09:00B. Molka2.5010880M. Lysakowski1.471211113
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