TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152438
Played Sep 18Finished
Dawid Stapor
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1199111012811––
Mateusz Galus
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:14 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1199111012811––
H2H Dawid Stapor 39–40 Mateusz Galus Dawid Stapor has won 39 of their 79 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:14What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-40 in 79
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1530 vs Galus 1641
Galus
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 40% vs Galus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 40% vs Galus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -2 · Galus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Galus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 2.00 / Galus 1.70
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Galus)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13152438
Stapor2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 38 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Galus1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 125 of 225
Up 2–0, closes it98% 61 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 91 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor5wins
AwayGalus5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor71.4%5 of 7
AwayGalus100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor7Galus3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S2Stapor6Galus4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Stapor4Galus6n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S4Stapor4Galus3n = 7Stapor took 4 of 7
S5Stapor1Galus3n = 4Galus took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporGalusS − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.840.0−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 903 vs 355 / 66852.8%53.1%477 / 903 vs 355 / 668Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GalusStapor 2.00/Galus 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 09:00D. Stapor381191081M. Galus4391112113
LSep 11 · 07:00D. Stapor44114141142M. Galus56911169113
WAug 27 · 07:30D. Stapor43111110113M. Galus30841261
LAug 19 · 10:30D. Stapor46511118112M. Galus51117911133
LAug 18 · 13:10D. Stapor174760M. Galus331111113
WAug 18 · 09:30D. Stapor341111123M. Galus2376100
WJul 30 · 05:00D. Stapor53158118113M. Galus48131161172
WJul 29 · 06:00D. Stapor4212127113M. Galus3510101141
LJul 21 · 07:00D. Stapor4371171172M. Galus50119118113
WJul 15 · 13:40D. Stapor381611113M. Galus3114980
D. Stapor10
LSep 18 · 07:30D. Stapor2.00761131M. Stepien1.6611119113LSep 18 · 05:30D. Stapor2.37118111482D. Skvarskyi1.52711616113WSep 16 · 13:10P. Gola2.14661191D. Stapor1.6411117113LSep 16 · 12:00D. Stapor1.546811121M. Burkacki2.2511114143WSep 16 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.33611441D. Stapor3.1011611113WSep 16 · 08:00B. Molka1.90913381D. Stapor1.80111111113LSep 16 · 07:00P. Gola2.05111137133D. Stapor1.68851111112LSep 16 · 06:00D. Stapor1.7411980S. Radlo1.951311113WSep 15 · 12:40D. Stapor1.61111011113M. Burkacki2.15812771LSep 15 · 11:00D. Stapor1.688880B. Molka2.051111113
M. Galus10
LSep 18 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.661111153M. Galus2.0567130WSep 18 · 05:00P. Gola2.408670M. Galus1.501111113LSep 17 · 13:10M. Galus1.96811111262M. Stepien1.761181310113WSep 17 · 11:30M. Galus1.95127811133M. Lysakowski1.751011119112LSep 17 · 09:30D. Skvarskyi1.411113113M. Galus2.7091190WSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus1.6111811113M. Stepien2.15911511WSep 17 · 07:30S. Radlo2.029460M. Galus1.681111113LSep 17 · 07:00M. Galus1.474911111S. Wloszek2.5011117133WSep 11 · 13:00B. Molka1.916790M. Galus1.801111113LSep 11 · 11:30M. Ovcharenko1.661111113M. Galus2.104550
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