TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13135128
Played Sep 15Finished
Dawid Stapor
Home
1.61
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012117117––
Mateusz Burkacki
Away
2.15
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1181012117117––
H2H Dawid Stapor 10–6 Mateusz Burkacki Mateusz Burkacki has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Stapor beat Burkacki 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Stapor)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (20%) is below what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.61 / Burkacki 2.15
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Stapor)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13135128
Stapor1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 166 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it99% 84 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it86% 125 of 145
Burkacki2.15
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 56 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back25% 22 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor5wins
AwayBurkacki5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor66.7%4 of 6
AwayBurkacki75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor6Burkacki4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Stapor7Burkacki3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S3Stapor5Burkacki5n = 10split evenly
S4Stapor3Burkacki5n = 8Burkacki took 5 of 8
S5Stapor1Burkacki2n = 3Burkacki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporBurkackiS − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.4+2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 904 vs 92 / 23052.5%40%475 / 904 vs 92 / 230Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.61/Burkacki 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:30D. Stapor331111113M. Burkacki258980
LSep 9 · 06:00D. Stapor35961191M. Burkacki4111118113
WSep 8 · 13:10D. Stapor45111157113M. Burkacki4266111182
WSep 8 · 09:30D. Stapor331111113M. Burkacki208660
LSep 2 · 07:30D. Stapor351161081M. Burkacki3951112113
WJul 8 · 12:30D. Stapor43101111113M. Burkacki31125861
LJul 8 · 09:00D. Stapor526141110112M. Burkacki571112912133
WJun 29 · 09:00D. Stapor45111110133M. Burkacki355712111
LJun 26 · 11:00D. Stapor32611691M. Burkacki4011711113
LJun 19 · 08:00D. Stapor521191111102M. Burkacki54911139123
D. Stapor10
LSep 15 · 11:00D. Stapor1.688880B. Molka2.051111113LSep 15 · 09:30D. Stapor1.9189100S. Radlo1.781111123LSep 15 · 08:00D. Stapor2.851191191M. Ovcharenko1.3813119113WSep 15 · 06:30D. Stapor1.611111113M. Burkacki2.138980LSep 15 · 05:00D. Stapor—612591M. Lysakowski—111011113LSep 11 · 13:30D. Stapor2.559840M. Ovcharenko1.411111113WSep 11 · 12:00D. Stapor1.711111113P. Gola2.008680WSep 11 · 10:00B. Molka2.107911111D. Stapor1.6011117133WSep 11 · 08:00M. Lysakowski1.73871591D. Stapor1.98111113113LSep 11 · 07:00D. Stapor1.95114141142M. Galus1.74911169113
M. Burkacki10
LSep 15 · 12:00M. Ovcharenko1.3411116113M. Burkacki3.00231191LSep 15 · 10:30M. Burkacki2.8091211151M. Lysakowski1.3811148173WSep 15 · 08:30S. Radlo1.538118151M. Burkacki2.3511611173LSep 15 · 06:30D. Stapor1.611111113M. Burkacki2.138980LSep 15 · 05:30B. Molka1.551112113M. Burkacki2.1581050LSep 14 · 13:30M. Burkacki2.151251451S. Wloszek1.62141112113WSep 14 · 11:30M. Stepien1.461141161M. Burkacki2.4861113113WSep 14 · 10:30S. Wloszek1.50961191M. Burkacki2.3611117113LSep 14 · 09:00D. Skvarskyi1.411111113M. Burkacki2.602950WSep 14 · 07:00P. Gola1.5211115362M. Burkacki2.37551111113
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