TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139566
Played Sep 16Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611116411411––
Dawid Stapor
Away
3.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:17 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
611116411411––
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 9–6 Dawid Stapor Dawid Stapor has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:17What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (70%)
Ovcharenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Ovcharenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1727 vs Stapor 1537
Ovcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 100% vs Stapor 40%
Ovcharenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 80% vs Stapor 30%
Ovcharenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko +5 · Stapor +1
Ovcharenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Ovcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovcharenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.33 / Stapor 3.10
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13139566
Ovcharenko1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 45 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Stapor3.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 37 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvcharenko6wins
AwayStapor4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayStapor66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko7Stapor3n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Ovcharenko6Stapor4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Ovcharenko5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Ovcharenko4Stapor0n = 4Ovcharenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoStaporO − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.331.6+3.7per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 200 vs 477 / 90763%52.6%126 / 200 vs 477 / 907Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.33/Stapor 3.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko4413119113D. Stapor401191191
WSep 11 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko331111113D. Stapor219840
LSep 11 · 06:00M. Ovcharenko30111270D. Stapor381314113
WSep 8 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko4291111113D. Stapor34116891
WSep 6 · 21:35M. Ovcharenko331111113D. Stapor183960
WFeb 25 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko331111113D. Stapor187830
LFeb 24 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko137510D. Stapor331111113
LFeb 19 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko50111181192D. Stapor50713118113
LFeb 19 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko4111851162D. Stapor45511117113
WFeb 17 · 08:30M. Ovcharenko341211113D. Stapor1910450
M. Ovcharenko10
LSep 16 · 11:00B. Molka2.50112126113M. Ovcharenko1.46511101182WSep 16 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.391111113S. Radlo2.802920WSep 16 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.2711912113P. Gola3.095111031WSep 16 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.291111113M. Burkacki3.309950WSep 15 · 13:10M. Ovcharenko1.471116113B. Molka2.5041480WSep 15 · 12:00M. Ovcharenko1.3411116113M. Burkacki3.00231191WSep 15 · 10:00B. Molka2.20121111552M. Ovcharenko1.60147811113WSep 15 · 08:00D. Stapor2.851191191M. Ovcharenko1.3813119113LSep 15 · 07:00M. Ovcharenko2.167680M. Lysakowski1.631111113LSep 15 · 06:00S. Radlo2.621111113M. Ovcharenko1.375380
D. Stapor10
WSep 16 · 08:00B. Molka1.90913381D. Stapor1.80111111113LSep 16 · 07:00P. Gola2.05111137133D. Stapor1.68851111112LSep 16 · 06:00D. Stapor1.7411980S. Radlo1.951311113WSep 15 · 12:40D. Stapor1.61111011113M. Burkacki2.15812771LSep 15 · 11:00D. Stapor1.688880B. Molka2.051111113LSep 15 · 09:30D. Stapor1.9189100S. Radlo1.781111123LSep 15 · 08:00D. Stapor2.851191191M. Ovcharenko1.3813119113WSep 15 · 06:30D. Stapor1.611111113M. Burkacki2.138980LSep 15 · 05:00D. Stapor—612591M. Lysakowski—111011113LSep 11 · 13:30D. Stapor2.559840M. Ovcharenko1.411111113
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