TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13135174
Played Sep 15Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.47
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141614118––––
Bartlomiej Molka
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
1141614118––––
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 11–5 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Ovcharenko beat Molka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:06What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Ovcharenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1696 vs Molka 1593
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 60% vs Molka 40%
Ovcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 70% vs Molka 40%
Ovcharenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko +3 · Molka +1
Ovcharenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.47 / Molka 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13135174
Ovcharenko1.47
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 41 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Molka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 168 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back21% 44 of 210
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvcharenko9wins
AwayMolka1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko100%8 of 8
AwayMolkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko8Molka2n = 10Ovcharenko took 8 of 10
S2Ovcharenko5Molka5n = 10split evenly
S3Ovcharenko7Molka3n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S4Ovcharenko3Molka3n = 6split evenly
S5Ovcharenko5Molka0n = 5Ovcharenko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoMolkaO − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.532.6+7.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 196 vs 539 / 117662.2%45.8%122 / 196 vs 539 / 1176Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.47/Molka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.4%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko51147811113B. Molka44121111552
WSep 11 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko48117811113B. Molka4141111692
WSep 8 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko50119118113B. Molka4151161182
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko29712281B. Molka43111011113
WSep 6 · 20:35M. Ovcharenko331111113B. Molka189540
WFeb 28 · 14:45M. Ovcharenko331111113B. Molka168440
WFeb 28 · 10:35M. Ovcharenko331111113B. Molka164660
WFeb 27 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko501171110113B. Molka4171141272
WFeb 21 · 10:05M. Ovcharenko45381112113B. Molka43111181032
WFeb 20 · 13:40M. Ovcharenko331111113B. Molka238780
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 15 · 12:00M. Ovcharenko1.3411116113M. Burkacki3.00231191WSep 15 · 10:00B. Molka2.20121111552M. Ovcharenko1.60147811113WSep 15 · 08:00D. Stapor2.851191191M. Ovcharenko1.3813119113LSep 15 · 07:00M. Ovcharenko2.167680M. Lysakowski1.631111113LSep 15 · 06:00S. Radlo2.621111113M. Ovcharenko1.375380WSep 12 · 13:35M. Ovcharenko1.5511117113S. Radlo2.30741131WSep 12 · 13:05M. Stepien2.158760M. Ovcharenko1.581111113WSep 12 · 11:35M. Ovcharenko1.321111113P. Gola3.108520LSep 12 · 09:35S. Radlo2.4311711113M. Ovcharenko1.45411581WSep 12 · 07:35D. Skvarskyi1.71111110992M. Ovcharenko2.00771211113
B. Molka10
WSep 15 · 11:00D. Stapor1.688880B. Molka2.051111113LSep 15 · 10:00B. Molka2.20121111552M. Ovcharenko1.60147811113LSep 15 · 09:00B. Molka2.5010880M. Lysakowski1.471211113LSep 15 · 07:30B. Molka1.6894121182S. Radlo2.051111108113WSep 15 · 05:30B. Molka1.551112113M. Burkacki2.1581050LSep 14 · 13:00D. Skvarskyi1.757111110113B. Molka1.9711481292WSep 14 · 11:00B. Molka2.40651111143D. Skvarskyi1.51111168122WSep 14 · 09:30B. Molka2.4091111113M. Stepien1.50116781LSep 14 · 08:00B. Molka2.103511101P. Gola1.6011117123LSep 14 · 06:30B. Molka1.749111191S. Wloszek1.9511913113
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