TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13159235
Played Sep 19Finished
Mateusz Galus
Home
1.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119113––––
Marcin Stepien
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
118119113––––
H2H Mateusz Galus 49–32 Marcin Stepien Marcin Stepien has won 32 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-32 in 81
Galus
Correct
gap of 17 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Galus 1636 vs Stepien 1660
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 60% vs Stepien 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 50% vs Stepien 70%
Stepien
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus -1 · Stepien -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Galus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.60 / Stepien 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Galus)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13159235
Galus1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 127 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it98% 63 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it79% 92 of 117
Stepien2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGalus4wins
AwayStepien6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGalus100%3 of 3
AwayStepien85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Galus3Stepien7n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Galus6Stepien4n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S3Galus5Stepien5n = 10split evenly
S4Galus5Stepien3n = 8Galus took 5 of 8
S5Galus1Stepien3n = 4Stepien took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGalusStepienG − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.5+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 677 vs 654 / 117453%55.7%359 / 677 vs 654 / 1174Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GalusGalus 1.60/Stepien 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 11:30M. Galus4691171182M. Stepien49117119113
LSep 17 · 13:10M. Galus48811111262M. Stepien531181310113
WSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus4111811113M. Stepien26911511
LSep 10 · 11:30M. Galus30811471M. Stepien4211911113
WAug 31 · 05:30M. Galus47591111113M. Stepien4211118392
LAug 30 · 19:35M. Galus2610880M. Stepien341211113
WAug 27 · 09:30M. Galus351311113M. Stepien1711240
LAug 25 · 07:00M. Galus4291111292M. Stepien46118511113
WAug 20 · 13:30M. Galus4311813113M. Stepien369111151
LAug 20 · 08:30M. Galus30411871M. Stepien4011711113
M. Galus10
LSep 19 · 10:35M. Ovcharenko1.57511118123M. Galus2.20116511102WSep 19 · 09:35M. Galus1.801111113D. Stapor1.903690LSep 19 · 08:35D. Skvarskyi1.911411712113M. Galus1.78164111072WSep 19 · 07:05M. Galus1.4911118113S. Wloszek2.50441181WSep 18 · 12:40M. Galus—11119113D. Stapor—791181LSep 18 · 11:30M. Stepien2.05117119113M. Galus1.6691171182LSep 18 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.57611118113M. Galus2.2511961162WSep 18 · 09:00D. Stapor2.001191081M. Galus1.7091112113LSep 18 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.661111153M. Galus2.0567130WSep 18 · 05:00P. Gola2.408670M. Galus1.501111113
M. Stepien10
WSep 19 · 13:35M. Stepien1.9814118113S. Wloszek1.731251131LSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890LSep 19 · 10:05D. Skvarskyi1.431111113M. Stepien2.437750WSep 19 · 08:05S. Wloszek2.504490M. Stepien1.471111113WSep 19 · 06:05M. Ovcharenko1.58117281M. Stepien2.2581111113LSep 18 · 13:40M. Stepien1.405480P. Gola2.751111113WSep 18 · 11:30M. Stepien2.05117119113M. Galus1.6691171182WSep 18 · 09:30P. Gola2.8012541152M. Stepien1.391011117113WSep 18 · 08:30M. Stepien2.501111113D. Skvarskyi1.405580WSep 18 · 07:30D. Stapor2.00761131M. Stepien1.6611119113
Upcoming Matches
M. Galus
M. Stepien
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.