TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13153715
Played Sep 18Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411811––––
Pawel Gola
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
50 points played in total.
Set by set
511411811––––
H2H Marcin Stepien 115–48 Pawel Gola Pawel Gola has won 48 of their 163 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Stepien beat Gola 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
115-48 in 163
Stepien
Wrong
gap of 67 in 163, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1649 vs Gola 1556
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 80% vs Gola 60%
Stepien
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 60% vs Gola 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien +4 · Gola +1
Stepien
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gola form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.40 / Gola 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Stepien)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13153715
Stepien1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 190 of 326
Up 2–0, closes it94% 130 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it80% 153 of 191
Gola2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 70 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back13% 14 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien8wins
AwayGola2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien100%7 of 7
AwayGola66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien7Gola3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Stepien8Gola2n = 10Stepien took 8 of 10
S3Stepien7Gola3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S4Stepien2Gola3n = 5Gola took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienGolaS − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.430.1+8.3per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienGolaBasisWin rate · lifetime652 / 1168 vs 580 / 118755.8%48.9%652 / 1168 vs 580 / 1187Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.40/Gola 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gola won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 09:30M. Stepien501011117113P. Gola3712541152
WSep 14 · 12:30M. Stepien561115613113P. Gola56917111182
WSep 14 · 06:00M. Stepien331111113P. Gola166550
LSep 13 · 20:35M. Stepien35711891P. Gola4211911113
WSep 12 · 08:05M. Stepien331111113P. Gola157260
WSep 4 · 10:30M. Stepien331111113P. Gola177640
WSep 1 · 09:00M. Stepien3913114113P. Gola381191171
WAug 31 · 11:00M. Stepien331111113P. Gola177460
WAug 24 · 11:30M. Stepien351113113P. Gola2041150
LAug 23 · 23:05M. Stepien37981281P. Gola43111110113
M. Stepien10
WSep 18 · 11:30M. Stepien2.05117119113M. Galus1.6691171182WSep 18 · 09:30P. Gola2.8012541152M. Stepien1.391011117113WSep 18 · 08:30M. Stepien2.501111113D. Skvarskyi1.405580WSep 18 · 07:30D. Stapor2.00761131M. Stepien1.6611119113LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stepien1.8512111110102M. Lysakowski1.85147912123WSep 17 · 13:10M. Galus1.96811111262M. Stepien1.761181310113WSep 17 · 12:00S. Wloszek2.551251161M. Stepien1.46101113113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113LSep 17 · 08:30M. Galus1.6111811113M. Stepien2.15911511LSep 17 · 06:30D. Skvarskyi1.40111481113M. Stepien2.75512111132
P. Gola10
WSep 18 · 11:00P. Gola2.0511711113D. Stapor1.68311961LSep 18 · 09:30P. Gola2.8012541152M. Stepien1.391011117113WSep 18 · 08:00P. Gola2.0511138113M. Lysakowski1.666111181WSep 18 · 06:30P. Gola3.3511117133D. Skvarskyi1.289311111LSep 18 · 05:00P. Gola2.408670M. Galus1.501111113LSep 16 · 13:10P. Gola2.14661191D. Stapor1.6411117113WSep 16 · 11:30P. Gola1.7591112113S. Radlo1.951161081WSep 16 · 09:30B. Molka1.9014580P. Gola1.761611113LSep 16 · 08:30P. Gola1.5711911912M. Burkacki2.20611511113LSep 16 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.2711912113P. Gola3.095111031
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