TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11810121210119––
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
11810121210119––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 105–126 Marcin Stepien Michal Lysakowski has won 105 of their 231 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
105-126 in 231
Stepien
Wrong
gap of 21 in 231, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1692 vs Stepien 1648
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 60% vs Stepien 40%
Lysakowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 70% vs Stepien 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +2 · Stepien +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.90 / Stepien 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stepien)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #13165589
Lysakowski1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 86 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Stepien1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 188 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it94% 126 of 134
Up 1–0, closes it80% 150 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski8wins
AwayStepien2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski87.5%7 of 8
AwayStepienn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski8Stepien2n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S2Lysakowski5Stepien5n = 10split evenly
S3Lysakowski6Stepien4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S4Lysakowski4Stepien3n = 7Lysakowski took 4 of 7
S5Lysakowski3Stepien0n = 3Lysakowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiStepienL − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.737.6+3.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1323 vs 654 / 117649.6%55.6%656 / 1323 vs 654 / 1176Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienLysakowski 1.90/Stepien 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 06:00M. Lysakowski54147912123M. Stepien5412111110102
WSep 17 · 10:30M. Lysakowski4011711113M. Stepien31811841
LSep 13 · 21:35M. Lysakowski28115571M. Stepien4181111113
WSep 12 · 11:05M. Lysakowski331111113M. Stepien218850
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski50124911143M. Stepien521011118122
WSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski351113113M. Stepien2781180
WSep 1 · 13:30M. Lysakowski351111133M. Stepien2678110
LSep 1 · 10:30M. Lysakowski389114141M. Stepien4511711163
WAug 31 · 09:00M. Lysakowski52912128113M. Stepien461110101142
WAug 30 · 21:05M. Lysakowski4211911113M. Stepien33911941
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 20 · 15:35M. Lysakowski1.4913911113S. Radlo2.451111451WSep 18 · 13:10D. Skvarskyi1.85511514122M. Lysakowski1.851141112143LSep 18 · 12:00M. Lysakowski1.87791141D. Skvarskyi1.8311118113WSep 18 · 10:00D. Stapor2.20691171M. Lysakowski1.5711116113LSep 18 · 08:00P. Gola2.0511138113M. Lysakowski1.666111181WSep 18 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.661111153M. Galus2.0567130WSep 18 · 06:00M. Stepien1.8512111110102M. Lysakowski1.85147912123WSep 17 · 12:40S. Radlo1.751310110M. Lysakowski1.981512133LSep 17 · 11:30M. Galus1.95127811133M. Lysakowski1.751011119112WSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113
M. Stepien10
WSep 20 · 18:35M. Stepien1.481111113S. Radlo2.306580WSep 20 · 17:05M. Stepien1.471111113B. Molka2.503690WSep 19 · 13:35M. Stepien1.9814118113S. Wloszek1.731251131LSep 19 · 12:35M. Galus1.601111113M. Stepien2.208930LSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890LSep 19 · 10:05D. Skvarskyi1.431111113M. Stepien2.437750WSep 19 · 08:05S. Wloszek2.504490M. Stepien1.471111113WSep 19 · 06:05M. Ovcharenko1.58117281M. Stepien2.2581111113LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stepien1.8512111110102M. Lysakowski1.85147912123LSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113
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