TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152891
Played Sep 18Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
1.87
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911118411––
Dmytro Skvarskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:52 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDmytro Skvarskyi to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
711911118411––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 12–11 Dmytro Skvarskyi Dmytro Skvarskyi has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:52What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Skvarskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1670 vs Skvarskyi 1741
Skvarskyi
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 80% vs Skvarskyi 40%
Lysakowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 50% vs Skvarskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +1 · Skvarskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvarskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvarskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.87 / Skvarskyi 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvarskyi)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13152891
Lysakowski1.87
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 85 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Skvarskyi1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 71 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski5wins
AwaySkvarskyi5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski75%3 of 4
AwaySkvarskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski4Skvarskyi6n = 10Skvarskyi took 6 of 10
S2Lysakowski6Skvarskyi4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S3Lysakowski4Skvarskyi6n = 10Skvarskyi took 6 of 10
S4Lysakowski6Skvarskyi2n = 8Lysakowski took 6 of 8
S5Lysakowski1Skvarskyi2n = 3Skvarskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiSkvarskyiL − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.1+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiSkvarskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1323 vs 157 / 23049.6%68.3%656 / 1323 vs 157 / 230Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvarskyiLysakowski 1.87/Skvarskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvarskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvarskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 05:00M. Lysakowski195680D. Skvarskyi331111113
WSep 12 · 14:05M. Lysakowski4281111123D. Skvarskyi351168101
LSep 12 · 12:05M. Lysakowski35891171D. Skvarskyi4011117113
WSep 9 · 05:30M. Lysakowski361411113D. Skvarskyi2212460
LSep 7 · 13:40M. Lysakowski46613121232D. Skvarskyi5711111410113
LSep 7 · 08:30M. Lysakowski4013491132D. Skvarskyi501111116113
WSep 3 · 06:00M. Lysakowski4111118113D. Skvarskyi20341121
WSep 1 · 08:30M. Lysakowski50119711123D. Skvarskyi46711117102
WJul 17 · 09:00M. Lysakowski4071111113D. Skvarskyi28115931
LApr 13 · 13:40M. Lysakowski28511661D. Skvarskyi4011711113
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 18 · 10:00D. Stapor2.20691171M. Lysakowski1.5711116113LSep 18 · 08:00P. Gola2.0511138113M. Lysakowski1.666111181WSep 18 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.661111153M. Galus2.0567130WSep 18 · 06:00M. Stepien1.8512111110102M. Lysakowski1.85147912123WSep 17 · 12:40S. Radlo1.751310110M. Lysakowski1.981512133LSep 17 · 11:30M. Galus1.95127811133M. Lysakowski1.751011119112WSep 17 · 10:30M. Stepien1.82811841M. Lysakowski1.9011711113LSep 17 · 09:00S. Radlo2.501113113M. Lysakowski1.4791190LSep 17 · 06:00S. Wloszek2.3881113113M. Lysakowski1.491191171LSep 17 · 05:00D. Skvarskyi1.981111113M. Lysakowski1.755680
D. Skvarskyi10
WSep 18 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.57611118113M. Galus2.2511961162LSep 18 · 08:30M. Stepien2.501111113D. Skvarskyi1.405580LSep 18 · 06:30P. Gola3.3511117133D. Skvarskyi1.289311111WSep 18 · 05:30D. Stapor2.37118111482D. Skvarskyi1.52711616113LSep 17 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi2.1569111132S. Wloszek1.63111194113LSep 17 · 11:00D. Skvarskyi2.325311111S. Radlo1.5511117133WSep 17 · 09:30D. Skvarskyi1.411113113M. Galus2.7091190WSep 17 · 08:00D. Skvarskyi1.4711117113S. Wloszek2.50591161WSep 17 · 06:30D. Skvarskyi1.40111481113M. Stepien2.75512111132WSep 17 · 05:00D. Skvarskyi1.981111113M. Lysakowski1.755680
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