TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.47
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113116119––––
Bartlomiej Molka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
113116119––––
H2H Marcin Stepien 65–60 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 60 of their 125 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
65-60 in 125
Stepien
Correct
gap of 5 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1638 vs Molka 1552
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 40% vs Molka 20%
Stepien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 60% vs Molka 30%
Stepien
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien +1 · Molka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.47 / Molka 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stepien)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13164376
Stepien1.47
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 188 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it94% 126 of 134
Up 1–0, closes it80% 150 of 187
Molka2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 168 of 377
Down 0–1, comes back21% 44 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien4wins
AwayMolka6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMolka leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien50%3 of 6
AwayMolka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien6Molka4n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S2Stepien6Molka4n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S3Stepien5Molka5n = 10split evenly
S4Stepien1Molka5n = 6Molka took 5 of 6
S5Stepien1Molka2n = 3Molka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienMolkaS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.537.8−1.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime653 / 1175 vs 535 / 117055.6%45.7%653 / 1175 vs 535 / 1170Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.47/Molka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.2%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 09:30M. Stepien32116781B. Molka4291111113
LSep 13 · 23:40M. Stepien237880B. Molka331111113
WSep 13 · 17:05M. Stepien341111123B. Molka2156100
LSep 7 · 13:10M. Stepien47811711102B. Molka44115115123
WSep 7 · 10:00M. Stepien43511115113B. Molka4811891192
LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien355121261B. Molka46111014113
WAug 31 · 10:00M. Stepien361114113B. Molka2781270
WAug 30 · 16:35M. Stepien331111113B. Molka238690
LAug 24 · 13:30M. Stepien48111511742B. Molka55717911113
LAug 24 · 08:30M. Stepien34118781B. Molka3961111113
M. Stepien10
LSep 20 · 17:35M. Lysakowski1.90111012113M. Stepien1.808121091WSep 19 · 13:35M. Stepien1.9814118113S. Wloszek1.731251131LSep 19 · 12:35M. Galus1.601111113M. Stepien2.208930LSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890LSep 19 · 10:05D. Skvarskyi1.431111113M. Stepien2.437750WSep 19 · 08:05S. Wloszek2.504490M. Stepien1.471111113WSep 19 · 06:05M. Ovcharenko1.58117281M. Stepien2.2581111113LSep 18 · 13:40M. Stepien1.405480P. Gola2.751111113WSep 18 · 11:30M. Stepien2.05117119113M. Galus1.6691171182WSep 18 · 09:30P. Gola2.8012541152M. Stepien1.391011117113
B. Molka10
LSep 20 · 16:05B. Molka1.669880S. Wloszek2.051111113LSep 16 · 12:40B. Molka1.681188141S. Radlo2.0561111163WSep 16 · 11:00B. Molka2.50112126113M. Ovcharenko1.46511101182LSep 16 · 09:30B. Molka1.9014580P. Gola1.761611113LSep 16 · 08:00B. Molka1.90913381D. Stapor1.80111111113LSep 16 · 06:30B. Molka1.463990M. Burkacki2.481111113WSep 16 · 05:00B. Molka1.651311113S. Radlo2.1011860LSep 15 · 13:10M. Ovcharenko1.471116113B. Molka2.5041480WSep 15 · 11:00D. Stapor1.688880B. Molka2.051111113LSep 15 · 10:00B. Molka2.20121111552M. Ovcharenko1.60147811113
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