TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Dawid Stapor
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11912101214115––
Michal Lysakowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
11912101214115––
H2H Dawid Stapor 117–94 Michal Lysakowski Michal Lysakowski has won 94 of their 211 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
117-94 in 211
Stapor
Correct
gap of 23 in 211, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1571 vs Lysakowski 1729
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Lysakowski 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 50% vs Lysakowski 80%
Lysakowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +3 · Lysakowski +2
Stapor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 2.25 / Lysakowski 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Lysakowski)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13167953
Stapor2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 39 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Lysakowski1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 180 of 324
Up 2–0, closes it93% 115 of 124
Up 1–0, closes it75% 154 of 205
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor4wins
AwayLysakowski6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaporn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLysakowski75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor2Lysakowski8n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S2Stapor6Lysakowski4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Stapor7Lysakowski3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S4Stapor2Lysakowski7n = 9Lysakowski took 7 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporLysakowskiS − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.4−2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 907 vs 662 / 133053%49.8%481 / 907 vs 662 / 1330Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiStapor 2.25/Lysakowski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 10:00D. Stapor33691171M. Lysakowski3911116113
LSep 15 · 05:00D. Stapor32612591M. Lysakowski43111011113
WSep 11 · 08:00D. Stapor46111113113M. Lysakowski39871591
LSep 9 · 13:10D. Stapor3911611111M. Lysakowski4313116133
LSep 9 · 10:00D. Stapor36981361M. Lysakowski44111111113
LSep 1 · 06:00D. Stapor27711451M. Lysakowski4111811113
WAug 28 · 11:30D. Stapor4181111113M. Lysakowski34119771
WAug 19 · 05:30D. Stapor511011118113M. Lysakowski4812971192
LAug 18 · 08:00D. Stapor388111181M. Lysakowski4411139113
WJul 31 · 13:20D. Stapor361111143M. Lysakowski2998120
D. Stapor10
WSep 21 · 09:30D. Stapor1.571113113B. Molka2.2091190WSep 21 · 06:30D. Stapor1.831111113S. Radlo1.868960WSep 21 · 05:00D. Stapor1.511021111113P. Gola2.4012114642WSep 19 · 14:05M. Galus1.83811491D. Stapor1.8911711113LSep 19 · 13:05S. Wloszek2.00111011113D. Stapor1.66212781WSep 19 · 11:35D. Stapor2.101111113M. Stepien1.606890LSep 19 · 09:35M. Galus1.801111113D. Stapor1.903690LSep 19 · 07:35M. Ovcharenko1.3911911113D. Stapor2.80611711WSep 19 · 06:35D. Skvarskyi1.4191460D. Stapor2.601116113LSep 18 · 12:40M. Galus—11119113D. Stapor—791181
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 21 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.6811611113P. Gola2.05711971WSep 21 · 06:00B. Molka2.751113971M. Lysakowski1.4061511113LSep 20 · 23:45M. Lysakowski2.30611881M. Stepien1.5511711113WSep 20 · 21:05P. Gola1.957960M. Lysakowski1.761111113WSep 20 · 20:05M. Lysakowski1.341411113B. Molka3.1012770WSep 20 · 19:05M. Lysakowski1.391411113S. Wloszek2.5512790WSep 20 · 17:35M. Lysakowski1.90111012113M. Stepien1.808121091WSep 20 · 15:35M. Lysakowski1.4913911113S. Radlo2.451111451WSep 18 · 13:10D. Skvarskyi1.85511514122M. Lysakowski1.851141112143LSep 18 · 12:00M. Lysakowski1.87791141D. Skvarskyi1.8311118113
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