TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bartlomiej Molka vs Michal Lysakowski 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Bartlomiej Molka
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
141251111911131412
Michal Lysakowski
Away
1.54
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
112 points played in total.
Set by set
141251111911131412
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 43–67 Michal Lysakowski Bartlomiej Molka has won 43 of their 110 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Lysakowski beat Molka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-67 in 110
Lysakowski
Wrong
gap of 24 in 110, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molka 1540 vs Lysakowski 1710
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 60% vs Lysakowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 40% vs Lysakowski 70%
Lysakowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka +2 · Lysakowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 2.25 / Lysakowski 1.54
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Lysakowski)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13172988
Molka2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 166 of 378
Down 0–1, comes back21% 44 of 214
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 120
Lysakowski1.54
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 184 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it93% 116 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it76% 157 of 208
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolka3wins
AwayLysakowski7wins
Lysakowski leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolka50%2 of 4
AwayLysakowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molka4Lysakowski6n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S2Molka4Lysakowski6n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S3Molka3Lysakowski7n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S4Molka2Lysakowski4n = 6Lysakowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolkaLysakowskiM − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.537.7−3.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime538 / 1177 vs 660 / 132845.7%49.7%538 / 1177 vs 660 / 1328Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiMolka 2.25/Lysakowski 1.54
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Molka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 06:00B. Molka401113971M. Lysakowski4361511113
LSep 20 · 20:05B. Molka2612770M. Lysakowski361411113
LSep 15 · 09:00B. Molka2610880M. Lysakowski341211113
WSep 13 · 16:05B. Molka43111110113M. Lysakowski35881271
WSep 11 · 11:00B. Molka5091317113M. Lysakowski4411111571
LSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka34971171M. Lysakowski4111118113
LAug 31 · 07:00B. Molka39129991M. Lysakowski43101111113
LAug 30 · 15:35B. Molka29912531M. Lysakowski43111011113
WAug 28 · 08:30B. Molka361312113M. Lysakowski25111040
LAug 26 · 12:00B. Molka225890M. Lysakowski331111113
B. Molka10
WSep 21 · 13:00S. Wloszek1.959780B. Molka1.771111113WSep 21 · 11:30B. Molka2.051112711113P. Gola1.66910111382LSep 21 · 09:30D. Stapor1.571113113B. Molka2.2091190WSep 21 · 08:30B. Molka1.831312113S. Radlo1.83111070LSep 21 · 07:30S. Wloszek1.8511511113B. Molka1.85711681LSep 21 · 06:00B. Molka2.751113971M. Lysakowski1.4061511113WSep 20 · 22:45S. Wloszek—1512108152B. Molka—13101211173LSep 20 · 22:05B. Molka1.669911131S. Radlo2.1011117153LSep 20 · 20:05M. Lysakowski1.341411113B. Molka3.1012770LSep 20 · 18:05P. Gola1.6011711113B. Molka2.10811671
M. Lysakowski10
LSep 21 · 13:30D. Stapor2.0512117113M. Lysakowski1.701061151WSep 21 · 12:00M. Lysakowski1.391111123S. Radlo2.8086100WSep 21 · 10:00S. Wloszek2.6014118121M. Lysakowski1.4416911143LSep 21 · 08:00D. Stapor2.25111212113M. Lysakowski1.579101451WSep 21 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.6811611113P. Gola2.05711971WSep 21 · 06:00B. Molka2.751113971M. Lysakowski1.4061511113LSep 20 · 23:45M. Lysakowski2.30611881M. Stepien1.5511711113WSep 20 · 21:05P. Gola1.957960M. Lysakowski1.761111113WSep 20 · 20:05M. Lysakowski1.341411113B. Molka3.1012770WSep 20 · 19:05M. Lysakowski1.391411113S. Wloszek2.5512790
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