TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jachym Sebl vs Tomas Rein 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101210811118––
Tomas Rein
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Tomas Rein below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 82 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 11–30 Tomas Rein Jachym Sebl has won 11 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:37What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-30 in 41
Rein
Wrong
gap of 19 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1654 vs Rein 1378
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 276 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 40% vs Rein 20%
Sebl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 60% vs Rein 30%
Sebl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +1 · Rein -4
Rein
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sebl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.67 / Rein 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Rein)-2.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13176830
Sebl1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 82 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it98% 54 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it79% 66 of 84
Rein2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 93 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl4wins
AwayRein6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRein leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl80%4 of 5
AwayRein100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl5Rein5n = 10split evenly
S2Sebl2Rein8n = 10Rein took 8 of 10
S3Sebl5Rein5n = 10split evenly
S4Sebl2Rein3n = 5Rein took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblReinS − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.335.4−3.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblReinBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 629 vs 388 / 84848.3%45.8%304 / 629 vs 388 / 848Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.67/Rein 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 16:50J. Sebl4211911113T. Rein31511691
WAug 25 · 15:20J. Sebl4011117113T. Rein25831131
WAug 23 · 20:20J. Sebl331111113T. Rein236890
LAug 17 · 12:20J. Sebl155550T. Rein331111113
LAug 16 · 21:29J. Sebl48111011972T. Rein50712911113
LAug 16 · 18:20J. Sebl258890T. Rein331111113
WAug 7 · 19:55J. Sebl45123118113T. Rein50101191192
LAug 1 · 20:25J. Sebl196580T. Rein331111113
LJun 26 · 10:10J. Sebl173770T. Rein331111113
LJun 26 · 08:25J. Sebl3981011101T. Rein4311128123
J. Sebl10
LSep 22 · 18:00J. Sebl2.00411571V. Koutnik1.7311511113WSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113LSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941LSep 20 · 08:55J. Sebl1.59101111892Z. Muhlhauser2.07127811113LSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 20 · 06:55J. Sebl1.601114113J. Cousin2.2071280WSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113WSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113LSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152
T. Rein10
LSep 22 · 17:30D. Zelezny1.44811811113T. Rein2.6311711982LSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein2.63614811112D. Zelezny1.441112119133LSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121LSep 20 · 18:00T. Rein—513761B. Budik—111111113LSep 20 · 16:55T. Rein1.61117381A. Jr2.2031111113WSep 20 · 15:55T. Rein2.95111011113B. Budik1.33712951LSep 20 · 14:55T. Rein2.3812660J. Dohnal1.531411113LSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 19 · 20:55T. Rein2.759860C. Kratochvil1.401111113WSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102
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