TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Zelezny vs Tomas Rein 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Daniel Zelezny
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117811119118
Tomas Rein
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:27 and never touched — 69.7% is still 69.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
69.7%
69.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Zelezny above · Tomas Rein below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Daniel Zelezny at 69.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Zelezny 6–4 Tomas Rein Tomas Rein has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Zelezny beat Rein 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:27What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Zelezny
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezny 1541 vs Rein 1374
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezny 80% vs Rein 0%
Zelezny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezny 70% vs Rein 20%
Zelezny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezny -1 · Rein -5
Rein
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Zelezny) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezny 1.44 / Rein 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Zelezny)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13179766
Zelezny1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 31 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Rein2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 93 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezny6wins
AwayRein4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelezny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezny71.4%5 of 7
AwayRein66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezny7Rein3n = 10Zelezny took 7 of 10
S2Zelezny4Rein6n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S3Zelezny4Rein6n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S4Zelezny4Rein3n = 7Zelezny took 4 of 7
S5Zelezny2Rein1n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZeleznyReinZ − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.738.0+1.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeleznyReinBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 216 vs 388 / 84952.8%45.7%114 / 216 vs 388 / 849Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyZelezny 1.44/Rein 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 15:50D. Zelezny561112119133T. Rein50614811112
WSep 15 · 17:50D. Zelezny51111811113T. Rein42920491
LSep 15 · 15:50D. Zelezny351111941T. Rein4491311113
WSep 11 · 14:50D. Zelezny43111110113T. Rein31691241
LJul 4 · 11:55D. Zelezny4213117382T. Rein511171111113
WJun 4 · 16:50D. Zelezny341112113T. Rein2371060
LMay 29 · 17:20D. Zelezny259880T. Rein331111113
WMay 29 · 14:50D. Zelezny3841111123T. Rein321174101
LMay 16 · 18:03D. Zelezny259880T. Rein331111113
WMay 16 · 15:25D. Zelezny481110511113T. Rein4171211382
D. Zelezny10
LSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101WSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein2.63614811112D. Zelezny1.441112119133WSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein2.40920491D. Zelezny1.50111811113WSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113LSep 15 · 15:50T. Rein2.7591311113D. Zelezny1.401111941WSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.361111123A. Jr3.0097100WSep 13 · 13:55L. Jirka2.07118641D. Zelezny1.6781111113WSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.731114113L. Rek2.0071280LSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102
T. Rein10
LSep 22 · 16:50J. Sebl1.6712128113T. Rein2.1010101181LSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein2.63614811112D. Zelezny1.441112119133LSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121LSep 20 · 18:00T. Rein—513761B. Budik—111111113LSep 20 · 16:55T. Rein1.61117381A. Jr2.2031111113WSep 20 · 15:55T. Rein2.95111011113B. Budik1.33712951LSep 20 · 14:55T. Rein2.3812660J. Dohnal1.531411113LSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein2.40920491D. Zelezny1.50111811113WSep 15 · 15:50T. Rein2.7591311113D. Zelezny1.401111941
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