TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Vasyliev vs Oleg Sapuzhak 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14121171416117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:35 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeOleg Sapuzhak to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Vasyliev above · Oleg Sapuzhak below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 92 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Oleg Sapuzhak at 55.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Vasyliev 1–2 Oleg Sapuzhak Volodymyr Vasyliev has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3555.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sapuzhak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vasyliev 1148 vs Sapuzhak 1173
Sapuzhak
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vasyliev 40% vs Sapuzhak 60%
Sapuzhak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vasyliev 30% vs Sapuzhak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vasyliev +1 · Sapuzhak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Sapuzhak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVasyliev 2.10 / Sapuzhak 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Sapuzhak)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276475
Vasyliev2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 24 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Sapuzhak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 28 days ago (Sep 13) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 12 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVasyliev1wins
AwaySapuzhak2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSapuzhak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vasyliev2Sapuzhak1n = 3Vasyliev took 2 of 3
S2Vasyliev1Sapuzhak2n = 3Sapuzhak took 2 of 3
S3Vasyliev2Sapuzhak1n = 3Vasyliev took 2 of 3
S4Vasyliev1Sapuzhak2n = 3Sapuzhak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVasylievSapuzhakV − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.342.0+1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVasylievSapuzhakBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 159 vs 64 / 16246.5%39.5%74 / 159 vs 64 / 162Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.834.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SapuzhakVasyliev 2.10/Sapuzhak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Sapuzhak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vasyliev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 11 · 11:55V. Vasyliev50141114113O. Sapuzhak421271671
LAug 16 · 15:55V. Vasyliev33691171O. Sapuzhak3711114113
LAug 9 · 13:25V. Vasyliev47111011872O. Sapuzhak47712611113
V. Vasyliev10
WOct 11 · 13:25V. Vasyliev1.531161163I. Fokin2.38911851WOct 5 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.53661171V. Vasyliev2.3811113113LOct 5 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.501011117113V. Vasyliev2.5012731182WOct 5 · 08:25H. Oliynyk1.807850V. Vasyliev1.911111113LOct 5 · 06:25O. Melnik1.571111113V. Vasyliev2.257830LOct 5 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk1.83311811113V. Vasyliev1.8311611562LOct 4 · 18:25M. Dunas1.36121211123V. Vasyliev3.0010145101LOct 4 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5011129113V. Vasyliev2.506101181LOct 4 · 15:55O. Maslovskyi1.57118711113V. Vasyliev2.2561111792LOct 4 · 13:55O. Melnik1.67129711113V. Vasyliev2.10101111992
O. Sapuzhak10
LOct 11 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi2.25111O. Sapuzhak1.5790WSep 13 · 18:25O. Sapuzhak2.6361112123V. Salivonchyk1.4411810101WSep 13 · 16:25I. Fokin2.101051271O. Sapuzhak1.67121110113LSep 13 · 15:25O. Sapuzhak2.50913611M. Treschetka1.50111111113WSep 13 · 14:25D. Belanchik1.8381080O. Sapuzhak1.831112113LSep 13 · 12:55O. Sapuzhak3.50311661V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 17:55O. Sapuzhak2.2010250V. Salivonchyk1.611211113WSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 14:55O. Sapuzhak2.38116841M. Treschetka1.5381111113LSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113
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