TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Melnik vs Volodymyr Vasyliev 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118113––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:20 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Volodymyr Vasyliev below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 51 set 3, 11-3 · our read held Orest Melnik at 58.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 2–0 Volodymyr Vasyliev Volodymyr Vasyliev has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2058.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1289 vs Vasyliev 1113
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 80% vs Vasyliev 0%
Melnik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 60% vs Vasyliev 30%
Melnik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +2 · Vasyliev -5
Vasyliev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vasyliev form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.571 / Vasyliev 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Melnik)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245312
Melnik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 52 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Vasyliev2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 23 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMelnik2wins
AwayVasyliev0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderMelnik leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMelnikVasylievM − VBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.534.0+7.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikVasylievBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 358 vs 71 / 15546.9%45.8%168 / 358 vs 71 / 155Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.57/Vasyliev 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 5 · 06:25O. Melnik331111113V. Vasyliev187830
WOct 4 · 13:55O. Melnik50129711113V. Vasyliev50101111992
O. Melnik10
WOct 5 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk3.009560O. Melnik1.361111113WOct 5 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.7311116952O. Melnik2.00381111113WOct 4 · 18:55O. Melnik1.441111113O. Maksymkiv2.636890LOct 4 · 16:55O. Maslovskyi1.801111113O. Melnik1.919540WOct 4 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk3.5013791132O. Melnik1.281111116113WOct 4 · 13:55O. Melnik1.67129711113V. Vasyliev2.10101111992WOct 4 · 12:55M. Dunas2.205770O. Melnik1.611111113WSep 23 · 11:25O. Melnik1.501110118113O. Maksymkiv2.5091221152LSep 23 · 09:25A. Dulich1.36119812113O. Melnik3.00811111062LSep 23 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.33118511113O. Melnik3.2541111762
V. Vasyliev10
LOct 5 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk1.83311811113V. Vasyliev1.8311611562LOct 4 · 18:25M. Dunas1.36121211123V. Vasyliev3.0010145101LOct 4 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5011129113V. Vasyliev2.506101181LOct 4 · 15:55O. Maslovskyi1.57118711113V. Vasyliev2.2561111792LOct 4 · 13:55O. Melnik1.67129711113V. Vasyliev2.10101111992WOct 4 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk1.731011461V. Vasyliev2.0012811113WAug 17 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv1.36119941V. Vasyliev3.0061111113WAug 17 · 09:55V. Vasyliev2.101111113V. Salivonchyk1.674890LAug 17 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi1.5341111113V. Vasyliev2.38118851LAug 17 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.831111113V. Vasyliev1.839670
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