TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasil Salivonchyk vs Orest Melnik 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311711911116311
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 93 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Orest Melnik at 66.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 2–5 Orest Melnik Vasil Salivonchyk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3966.9%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 10.9pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Melnik
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1193 vs Melnik 1245
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 20% vs Melnik 60%
Melnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 40% vs Melnik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk -2 · Melnik +3
Melnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Melnik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 3.50 / Melnik 1.285
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Melnik)-10.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240327
Salivonchyk3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 34 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Melnik1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 48 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk2wins
AwayMelnik5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMelnik leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk2Melnik5n = 7Melnik took 5 of 7
S2Salivonchyk2Melnik5n = 7Melnik took 5 of 7
S3Salivonchyk3Melnik4n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S4Salivonchyk3Melnik2n = 5Salivonchyk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricSalivonchykMelnikS − MBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match29.335.6−6.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 593 vs 164 / 35353.5%46.5%317 / 593 vs 164 / 353Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikSalivonchyk 3.50/Melnik 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 29 · 09:25V. Salivonchyk4181111113O. Melnik25112481
LJul 28 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk28116471O. Melnik3961111113
LOct 3 · 18:25V. Salivonchyk47111191152O. Melnik45135115113
LJul 17 · 07:25V. Salivonchyk145360O. Melnik331111113
WJul 16 · 18:25V. Salivonchyk43111011113O. Melnik32912921
LJun 27 · 10:55V. Salivonchyk23121191O. Melnik4211119113
LJun 26 · 18:25V. Salivonchyk92430O. Melnik331111113
V. Salivonchyk10
LOct 4 · 16:25V. Salivonchyk1.91410141162M. Dunas1.801112129113LOct 4 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk3.25591291O. Maksymkiv1.33111110113LOct 4 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk1.731011461V. Vasyliev2.0012811113WOct 1 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.20121070V. Salivonchyk1.611412113LOct 1 · 09:25V. Salivonchyk1.4491111692O. Maslovskyi2.63118511113LOct 1 · 08:25V. Salivonchyk1.61114371M. Dunas2.2081111113WOct 1 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk1.67111110113A. Nikolenko2.10591281LOct 1 · 04:55V. Salivonchyk1.91991191O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 28 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.0041111113V. Salivonchyk1.73119841WSep 28 · 09:55M. Dunas2.5091131142V. Salivonchyk1.50119119113
O. Melnik10
WOct 4 · 13:55O. Melnik1.67129711113V. Vasyliev2.10101111992WOct 4 · 12:55M. Dunas2.205770O. Melnik1.611111113WSep 23 · 11:25O. Melnik1.501110118113O. Maksymkiv2.5091221152LSep 23 · 09:25A. Dulich1.36119812113O. Melnik3.00811111062LSep 23 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.33118511113O. Melnik3.2541111762LSep 23 · 06:25O. Melnik1.7351350D. Kozoriz2.001115113WSep 23 · 05:25V. Hel1.4410760O. Melnik2.631211113LSep 22 · 18:25O. Melnik2.006890D. Kasian1.731111113LSep 22 · 16:25V. Hel1.571111113O. Melnik2.259640WSep 22 · 15:25O. Melnik1.801211133D. Kozoriz1.91109110
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