TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykolay Treschetka vs Vasil Salivonchyk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
12141012711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Vasil Salivonchyk @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Vasil Salivonchyk below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 66 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 58.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 73–79 Vasil Salivonchyk Mykolay Treschetka has won 73 of their 152 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:2058.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Salivonchyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
73-79 in 152
Salivonchyk
Correct
gap of 6 in 152, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1080 vs Salivonchyk 1209
Salivonchyk
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 20% vs Salivonchyk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 20% vs Salivonchyk 50%
Salivonchyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka -2 · Salivonchyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Salivonchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 2.20 / Salivonchyk 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Salivonchyk)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223684
Treschetka2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 83 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Salivonchyk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 78 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it70% 58 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTreschetka3wins
AwaySalivonchyk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSalivonchyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka33.3%2 of 6
AwaySalivonchyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka6Salivonchyk4n = 10Treschetka took 6 of 10
S2Treschetka4Salivonchyk6n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S3Treschetka3Salivonchyk7n = 10Salivonchyk took 7 of 10
S4Treschetka1Salivonchyk5n = 6Salivonchyk took 5 of 6
S5Treschetka1Salivonchyk2n = 3Salivonchyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTreschetkaSalivonchykT − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.339.3−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaSalivonchykBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 948 vs 321 / 60049.7%53.5%471 / 948 vs 321 / 600Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykTreschetka 2.20/Salivonchyk 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.5%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Vasil Salivonchyk @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
0–3
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 28 · 04:25M. Treschetka2486100V. Salivonchyk341111123
WSep 20 · 14:55M. Treschetka331111113V. Salivonchyk156360
LSep 14 · 08:25M. Treschetka2273120V. Salivonchyk361111143
LSep 13 · 17:25M. Treschetka3911118452V. Salivonchyk48961111113
LSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka311110731V. Salivonchyk4061211113
LAug 31 · 10:25M. Treschetka26112761V. Salivonchyk4291111113
WAug 30 · 14:25M. Treschetka518101111113V. Salivonchyk4211125772
LAug 24 · 05:55M. Treschetka4011711111V. Salivonchyk4361113133
LAug 23 · 17:55M. Treschetka521012117122V. Salivonchyk541210711143
M. Treschetka10
LOct 1 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.735680A. Nikolenko2.001111113LOct 1 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.506990O. Maslovskyi1.501111113WOct 1 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.4491111113O. Maksymkiv2.63115781LOct 1 · 04:25M. Treschetka1.918770M. Dunas1.801111113LSep 30 · 18:25A. Nikolenko2.00118911133M. Treschetka1.73711118112LSep 30 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91611811113M. Treschetka1.8011711872LSep 30 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.17911511113M. Treschetka4.5011811682WSep 30 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv2.63611371M. Treschetka1.4411611113LSep 30 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.5391511113M. Treschetka2.381113561LSep 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka4.338540H. Oliynyk1.201111113
V. Salivonchyk10
LOct 1 · 09:25V. Salivonchyk1.4491111692O. Maslovskyi2.63118511113LOct 1 · 08:25V. Salivonchyk1.61114371M. Dunas2.2081111113WOct 1 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk1.67111110113A. Nikolenko2.10591281LOct 1 · 04:55V. Salivonchyk1.91991191O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 28 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.0041111113V. Salivonchyk1.73119841WSep 28 · 09:55M. Dunas2.5091131142V. Salivonchyk1.50119119113WSep 28 · 08:25H. Oliynyk1.4014760V. Salivonchyk2.751611113WSep 28 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.3810650V. Salivonchyk1.531211113WSep 28 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.1086100V. Salivonchyk1.671111123LSep 21 · 10:35V. Salivonchyk2.757101191V. Hel1.4011124113
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