TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykolay Treschetka vs Mykhailo Dunas 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711711––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:17 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Dunas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Mykhailo Dunas below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Mykhailo Dunas at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 8–5 Mykhailo Dunas Mykhailo Dunas has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Dunas beat Treschetka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:1754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dunas
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Treschetka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1103 vs Dunas 1204
Dunas
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 20% vs Dunas 100%
Dunas
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 20% vs Dunas 90%
Dunas
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka -3 · Dunas +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dunas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dunas form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 1.909 / Dunas 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dunas)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223971
Treschetka1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 83 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Dunas1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 24 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it69% 20 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTreschetka6wins
AwayDunas4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTreschetka leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka75%3 of 4
AwayDunas50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka4Dunas6n = 10Dunas took 6 of 10
S2Treschetka4Dunas6n = 10Dunas took 6 of 10
S3Treschetka8Dunas2n = 10Treschetka took 8 of 10
S4Treschetka4Dunas4n = 8split evenly
S5Treschetka2Dunas1n = 3Treschetka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTreschetkaDunasT − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.637.9+0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaDunasBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 944 vs 47 / 9849.8%48%470 / 944 vs 47 / 98Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DunasTreschetka 1.91/Dunas 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dunas · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dunas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 17:25M. Treschetka4411711872M. Dunas47611811113
LSep 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka315511101M. Dunas4011116123
WSep 25 · 08:25M. Treschetka4211911113M. Dunas36911971
WSep 24 · 04:55M. Treschetka4211911113M. Dunas26411561
WSep 23 · 18:55M. Treschetka46411119113M. Dunas4711981182
WSep 3 · 10:25M. Treschetka331111113M. Dunas216780
WSep 2 · 13:25M. Treschetka3851111113M. Dunas26119421
WAug 31 · 04:55M. Treschetka50913512113M. Dunas521111111092
LAug 30 · 18:25M. Treschetka2812970M. Dunas361411113
LAug 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka32491721M. Dunas48111115113
M. Treschetka10
LSep 30 · 18:25A. Nikolenko2.00118911133M. Treschetka1.73711118112LSep 30 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91611811113M. Treschetka1.8011711872LSep 30 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.17911511113M. Treschetka4.5011811682WSep 30 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv2.63611371M. Treschetka1.4411611113LSep 30 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.5391511113M. Treschetka2.381113561LSep 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka4.338540H. Oliynyk1.201111113WSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.5311411113A. Nikolenko2.38911961LSep 28 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.25710100O. Maslovskyi1.571112123LSep 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.575511101M. Dunas2.2511116123LSep 28 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.1086100V. Salivonchyk1.671111123
M. Dunas10
WSep 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.3310890M. Dunas3.251211113WSep 30 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91611811113M. Treschetka1.8011711872WSep 30 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.00118201182M. Dunas1.36211229113WSep 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.386450M. Dunas1.531111113WSep 30 · 12:25H. Oliynyk1.6711911642M. Dunas2.10911911113WSep 28 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi2.3811611632M. Dunas1.53711811113LSep 28 · 09:55M. Dunas2.5091131142V. Salivonchyk1.50119119113WSep 28 · 07:55A. Nikolenko2.256970M. Dunas1.571111113WSep 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.575511101M. Dunas2.2511116123WSep 28 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.368860M. Dunas3.001111113
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