TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Maksymkiv vs Mykolay Treschetka 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611116311711––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMykolay Treschetka to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Mykolay Treschetka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 66 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Mykolay Treschetka at 61.3%
66 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 32–63 Mykolay Treschetka Oleh Maksymkiv has won 32 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4661.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 8.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Treschetka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-63 in 95
Treschetka
Correct
gap of 31 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1224 vs Treschetka 1120
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 60% vs Treschetka 20%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 50% vs Treschetka 20%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv +1 · Treschetka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Treschetka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Treschetka form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 2.625 / Treschetka 1.444
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Treschetka)-8.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218841
Maksymkiv2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Treschetka1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 72 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it84% 53 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv2wins
AwayTreschetka8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTreschetka leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkivn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTreschetka100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv2Treschetka8n = 10Treschetka took 8 of 10
S2Maksymkiv5Treschetka5n = 10split evenly
S3Maksymkiv1Treschetka9n = 10Treschetka took 9 of 10
S4Maksymkiv1Treschetka4n = 5Treschetka took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivTreschetkaM − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match27.237.6−10.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivTreschetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 756 vs 469 / 94052%49.9%393 / 756 vs 469 / 940Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaMaksymkiv 2.63/Treschetka 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 20 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv551113119113M. Treschetka4991561182
LSep 17 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv164840M. Treschetka331111113
WSep 7 · 06:55O. Maksymkiv4111116133M. Treschetka354911111
LSep 6 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv31611861M. Treschetka4211911113
LSep 3 · 04:55O. Maksymkiv115330M. Treschetka331111113
LAug 31 · 08:25O. Maksymkiv30811651M. Treschetka4111811113
LAug 30 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv30811291M. Treschetka3911611113
LAug 28 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv138320M. Treschetka331111113
LAug 27 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv184950M. Treschetka331111113
O. Maksymkiv10
WSep 30 · 12:55A. Nikolenko3.003590O. Maksymkiv1.361111113LSep 25 · 11:25M. Vivatenko1.8371111113O. Maksymkiv1.83119581WSep 25 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.331111113M. Dunas3.257960WSep 25 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.001371381O. Maksymkiv1.22151111113LSep 25 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.501111113O. Maksymkiv2.505840LSep 25 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.501181193O. Maksymkiv2.50811741LSep 23 · 11:25O. Melnik1.501110118113O. Maksymkiv2.5091221152LSep 23 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv3.758690D. Kozoriz1.251111113WSep 23 · 07:55V. Hel2.001111691O. Maksymkiv1.7313711113WSep 23 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.331091181O. Maksymkiv3.2512116113
M. Treschetka10
LSep 30 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.5391511113M. Treschetka2.381113561LSep 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka4.338540H. Oliynyk1.201111113WSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.5311411113A. Nikolenko2.38911961LSep 28 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.25710100O. Maslovskyi1.571112123LSep 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.575511101M. Dunas2.2511116123LSep 28 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.1086100V. Salivonchyk1.671111123LSep 25 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.221111113M. Treschetka4.009850LSep 25 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.75811111052M. Vivatenko1.40118712113WSep 25 · 08:25M. Treschetka1.5711911113M. Dunas2.25911971WSep 25 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.501181193O. Maksymkiv2.50811741
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