TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Nikolenko vs Oleh Maksymkiv 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311511911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched: 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 50 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 71.6%
50 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 18–18 Oleh Maksymkiv Dead even across their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4571.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-18 in 36
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1026 vs Maksymkiv 1217
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 40% vs Maksymkiv 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 40% vs Maksymkiv 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko +1 · Maksymkiv -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 3.00 / Maksymkiv 1.363
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219007
Nikolenko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog31% won 38 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back21% 17 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Maksymkiv1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 25)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 119 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it92% 56 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it80% 82 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko3wins
AwayMaksymkiv7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko40%2 of 5
AwayMaksymkiv80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko5Maksymkiv5n = 10split evenly
S2Nikolenko2Maksymkiv8n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S3Nikolenko2Maksymkiv8n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S4Nikolenko3Maksymkiv3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoMaksymkivN − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.236.8−4.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 677 vs 392 / 75546.8%51.9%317 / 677 vs 392 / 755Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivNikolenko 3.00/Maksymkiv 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko46121211113O. Maksymkiv291410141
LJun 15 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2046100O. Maksymkiv341111123
LJun 14 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3911115662O. Maksymkiv50981111113
WJun 10 · 12:55A. Nikolenko46118511113O. Maksymkiv4291111652
LMay 25 · 11:25A. Nikolenko218760O. Maksymkiv331111113
LApr 15 · 10:55A. Nikolenko184680O. Maksymkiv331111113
LMar 28 · 07:55A. Nikolenko36117991O. Maksymkiv4071111113
LMar 19 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2797110O. Maksymkiv351111133
LFeb 12 · 06:25A. Nikolenko29116751O. Maksymkiv3741111113
WFeb 11 · 16:55A. Nikolenko4012512113O. Maksymkiv3510111041
A. Nikolenko10
WSep 28 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.0041111113V. Salivonchyk1.73119841LSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.5311411113A. Nikolenko2.38911961LSep 28 · 07:55A. Nikolenko2.256970M. Dunas1.571111113WSep 28 · 06:55H. Oliynyk1.4411951252A. Nikolenko2.639111110113LSep 28 · 05:25A. Nikolenko3.0011118692O. Maslovskyi1.36821111113LSep 23 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi1.3671111133A. Nikolenko3.001189111LSep 23 · 16:55A. Nikolenko2.755114111M. Treschetka1.4011711133WSep 23 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.80661111113I. Fokin1.9111118962LSep 23 · 14:25A. Nikolenko2.75412381V. Ivanytskyi1.40111011113WSep 23 · 12:25A. Nikolenko2.5081214113M. Dunas1.5011101231
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 25 · 11:25M. Vivatenko1.8371111113O. Maksymkiv1.83119581WSep 25 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.331111113M. Dunas3.257960WSep 25 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.001371381O. Maksymkiv1.22151111113LSep 25 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.501111113O. Maksymkiv2.505840LSep 25 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.501181193O. Maksymkiv2.50811741LSep 23 · 11:25O. Melnik1.501110118113O. Maksymkiv2.5091221152LSep 23 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv3.758690D. Kozoriz1.251111113WSep 23 · 07:55V. Hel2.001111691O. Maksymkiv1.7313711113WSep 23 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.331091181O. Maksymkiv3.2512116113WSep 23 · 04:55A. Dulich1.509114121O. Maksymkiv2.5011611143
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