TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Hryhoriy Oliynyk vs Mykhailo Dunas 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911119611411
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeHryhoriy Oliynyk to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingHryhoriy Oliynyk above · Mykhailo Dunas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 92 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Hryhoriy Oliynyk at 56.6%
92 points played in total.
H2H Hryhoriy Oliynyk 2–1 Mykhailo Dunas Mykhailo Dunas has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2156.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oliynyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oliynyk 1223 vs Dunas 1145
Oliynyk
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oliynyk 40% vs Dunas 80%
Dunas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oliynyk 50% vs Dunas 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oliynyk +2 · Dunas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Oliynyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dunas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOliynyk 1.666 / Dunas 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Oliynyk)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218644
Oliynyk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 33 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it74% 26 of 35
Dunas2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 15 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOliynyk2wins
AwayDunas1wins
Oliynyk leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oliynyk2Dunas1n = 3Oliynyk took 2 of 3
S2Oliynyk1Dunas2n = 3Dunas took 2 of 3
S3Oliynyk1Dunas2n = 3Dunas took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricOliynykDunasO − DBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match33.331.3+2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOliynykDunasBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 229 vs 42 / 9350.2%45.2%115 / 229 vs 42 / 93Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OliynykOliynyk 1.67/Dunas 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Oliynyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dunas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 28 · 04:55H. Oliynyk228860M. Dunas331111113
WSep 25 · 04:25H. Oliynyk3511112113M. Dunas27641161
WAug 27 · 14:25H. Oliynyk4311912113M. Dunas344111091
H. Oliynyk10
WSep 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka4.338540H. Oliynyk1.201111113WSep 28 · 09:25H. Oliynyk1.611111113O. Maslovskyi2.208040LSep 28 · 08:25H. Oliynyk1.4014760V. Salivonchyk2.751611113LSep 28 · 06:55H. Oliynyk1.4411951252A. Nikolenko2.639111110113LSep 28 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.368860M. Dunas3.001111113WSep 25 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.221111113M. Treschetka4.009850LSep 25 · 08:55H. Oliynyk1.40810110O. Maslovskyi2.751112133LSep 25 · 07:25H. Oliynyk2.25241181M. Vivatenko1.5711118113WSep 25 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.501111113O. Maksymkiv2.505840WSep 25 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.4011112113M. Dunas2.75641161
M. Dunas10
WSep 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.386450M. Dunas1.531111113WSep 28 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi2.3811611632M. Dunas1.53711811113LSep 28 · 09:55M. Dunas2.5091131142V. Salivonchyk1.50119119113WSep 28 · 07:55A. Nikolenko2.256970M. Dunas1.571111113WSep 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.575511101M. Dunas2.2511116123WSep 28 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.368860M. Dunas3.001111113WSep 25 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.8387100M. Dunas1.831111123LSep 25 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.331111113M. Dunas3.257960LSep 25 · 08:25M. Treschetka1.5711911113M. Dunas2.25911971LSep 25 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.4011112113M. Dunas2.75641161
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