TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykolay Treschetka vs Anatolii Nikolenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611811––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:51 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMykolay Treschetka to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Mykolay Treschetka @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Anatolii Nikolenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Mykolay Treschetka at 54.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 25–30 Anatolii Nikolenko Mykolay Treschetka has won 25 of their 55 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 07:5154.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Treschetka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-30 in 55
Nikolenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1098 vs Nikolenko 1013
Treschetka
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 20% vs Nikolenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 30% vs Nikolenko 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka -1 · Nikolenko -3
Nikolenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Treschetka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nikolenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 1.727 / Nikolenko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Treschetka)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223540
Treschetka1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 73 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Nikolenko2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog31% won 40 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back22% 18 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTreschetka6wins
AwayNikolenko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTreschetka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka100%5 of 5
AwayNikolenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka5Nikolenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Treschetka6Nikolenko4n = 10Treschetka took 6 of 10
S3Treschetka8Nikolenko2n = 10Treschetka took 8 of 10
S4Treschetka3Nikolenko5n = 8Nikolenko took 5 of 8
S5Treschetka2Nikolenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTreschetkaNikolenkoT − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.040.3+0.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaNikolenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 947 vs 319 / 68549.7%46.6%471 / 947 vs 319 / 685Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaTreschetka 1.73/Nikolenko 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Mykolay Treschetka @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
0–3
Nikolenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 18:25M. Treschetka48711118112A. Nikolenko52118911133
WSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka3711411113A. Nikolenko35911961
WSep 23 · 16:55M. Treschetka4211711133A. Nikolenko315114111
WSep 3 · 09:25M. Treschetka54711119163A. Nikolenko52118811142
WSep 2 · 17:55M. Treschetka351112123A. Nikolenko29910100
WMay 25 · 09:25M. Treschetka331111113A. Nikolenko228590
WMay 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka50117138113A. Nikolenko48811111172
LMay 6 · 16:55M. Treschetka50111291172A. Nikolenko531310118113
LApr 20 · 04:55M. Treschetka30611581A. Nikolenko4211911113
LFeb 14 · 09:55M. Treschetka31791141A. Nikolenko3911116113
M. Treschetka10
LOct 1 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.506990O. Maslovskyi1.501111113WOct 1 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.4491111113O. Maksymkiv2.63115781LOct 1 · 04:25M. Treschetka1.918770M. Dunas1.801111113LSep 30 · 18:25A. Nikolenko2.00118911133M. Treschetka1.73711118112LSep 30 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91611811113M. Treschetka1.8011711872LSep 30 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.17911511113M. Treschetka4.5011811682WSep 30 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv2.63611371M. Treschetka1.4411611113LSep 30 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.5391511113M. Treschetka2.381113561LSep 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka4.338540H. Oliynyk1.201111113WSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.5311411113A. Nikolenko2.38911961
A. Nikolenko10
LOct 1 · 07:55A. Nikolenko3.25710111192O. Maksymkiv1.33111256113LOct 1 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk1.67111110113A. Nikolenko2.10591281LOct 1 · 05:25A. Nikolenko3.0071111382O. Maslovskyi1.36115611113WSep 30 · 18:25A. Nikolenko2.00118911133M. Treschetka1.73711118112LSep 30 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.361211123A. Nikolenko3.00108100LSep 30 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.00118201182M. Dunas1.36211229113WSep 30 · 14:25H. Oliynyk1.5311811462A. Nikolenko2.38911811113LSep 30 · 12:55A. Nikolenko3.003590O. Maksymkiv1.361111113WSep 28 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.0041111113V. Salivonchyk1.73119841LSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.5311411113A. Nikolenko2.38911961
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