TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Nikolenko vs Oleh Maksymkiv 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111012115116911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:50 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 73.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 18–19 Oleh Maksymkiv Anatolii Nikolenko has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5073.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-19 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1018 vs Maksymkiv 1214
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 196 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 20% vs Maksymkiv 60%
Maksymkiv
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 30% vs Maksymkiv 60%
Maksymkiv
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko -2 · Maksymkiv -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 3.25 / Maksymkiv 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223907
Nikolenko3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog31% won 40 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back22% 18 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Maksymkiv1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 120 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it80% 83 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko2wins
AwayMaksymkiv8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko25%1 of 4
AwayMaksymkiv83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko4Maksymkiv6n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S2Nikolenko2Maksymkiv8n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S3Nikolenko1Maksymkiv9n = 10Maksymkiv took 9 of 10
S4Nikolenko2Maksymkiv3n = 5Maksymkiv took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoMaksymkivN − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.936.6−6.7per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 684 vs 396 / 76246.6%52%319 / 684 vs 396 / 762Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivNikolenko 3.25/Maksymkiv 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 12:55A. Nikolenko173590O. Maksymkiv331111113
WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko46121211113O. Maksymkiv291410141
LJun 15 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2046100O. Maksymkiv341111123
LJun 14 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3911115662O. Maksymkiv50981111113
WJun 10 · 12:55A. Nikolenko46118511113O. Maksymkiv4291111652
LMay 25 · 11:25A. Nikolenko218760O. Maksymkiv331111113
LApr 15 · 10:55A. Nikolenko184680O. Maksymkiv331111113
LMar 28 · 07:55A. Nikolenko36117991O. Maksymkiv4071111113
LMar 19 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2797110O. Maksymkiv351111133
LFeb 12 · 06:25A. Nikolenko29116751O. Maksymkiv3741111113
A. Nikolenko10
WOct 1 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.735680A. Nikolenko2.001111113LOct 1 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk1.67111110113A. Nikolenko2.10591281LOct 1 · 05:25A. Nikolenko3.0071111382O. Maslovskyi1.36115611113WSep 30 · 18:25A. Nikolenko2.00118911133M. Treschetka1.73711118112LSep 30 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.361211123A. Nikolenko3.00108100LSep 30 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.00118201182M. Dunas1.36211229113WSep 30 · 14:25H. Oliynyk1.5311811462A. Nikolenko2.38911811113LSep 30 · 12:55A. Nikolenko3.003590O. Maksymkiv1.361111113WSep 28 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.0041111113V. Salivonchyk1.73119841LSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.5311411113A. Nikolenko2.38911961
O. Maksymkiv10
LOct 1 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.4491111113O. Maksymkiv2.63115781WOct 1 · 04:55V. Salivonchyk1.91991191O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.3310890M. Dunas3.251211113WSep 30 · 16:55H. Oliynyk1.40101130O. Maksymkiv2.751213113WSep 30 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi4.0049170O. Maksymkiv1.221111193LSep 30 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv2.63611371M. Treschetka1.4411611113WSep 30 · 12:55A. Nikolenko3.003590O. Maksymkiv1.361111113LSep 25 · 11:25M. Vivatenko1.8371111113O. Maksymkiv1.83119581WSep 25 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.331111113M. Dunas3.257960WSep 25 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.001371381O. Maksymkiv1.22151111113
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