TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasil Salivonchyk vs Volodymyr Vasyliev 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012118411611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Volodymyr Vasyliev below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 54.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 9–5 Volodymyr Vasyliev Volodymyr Vasyliev has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4854.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Salivonchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Salivonchyk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1219 vs Vasyliev 1152
Salivonchyk
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 40% vs Vasyliev 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 60% vs Vasyliev 40%
Salivonchyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk +1 · Vasyliev +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Salivonchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 1.727 / Vasyliev 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Salivonchyk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240106
Salivonchyk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 78 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it69% 59 of 85
Vasyliev2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 48 days ago (Aug 17) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 22 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk5wins
AwayVasyliev5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayVasyliev57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk3Vasyliev7n = 10Vasyliev took 7 of 10
S2Salivonchyk4Vasyliev6n = 10Vasyliev took 6 of 10
S3Salivonchyk5Vasyliev5n = 10split evenly
S4Salivonchyk5Vasyliev1n = 6Salivonchyk took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalivonchykVasylievS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.837.0−0.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykVasylievBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 594 vs 70 / 14853.7%47.3%319 / 594 vs 70 / 148Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykSalivonchyk 1.73/Vasyliev 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vasyliev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 09:55V. Salivonchyk214890V. Vasyliev331111113
LAug 16 · 17:25V. Salivonchyk239770V. Vasyliev331111113
WAug 10 · 08:55V. Salivonchyk4881114153V. Vasyliev4511912131
WAug 9 · 18:55V. Salivonchyk341211113V. Vasyliev2110470
WAug 3 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk5612111111113V. Vasyliev5014137792
LAug 2 · 17:25V. Salivonchyk46116101182V. Vasyliev46311129113
WJul 6 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk4213711113V. Vasyliev381111881
WJul 5 · 17:25V. Salivonchyk4071111113V. Vasyliev32117771
LJun 29 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk2881280V. Vasyliev361114113
LJun 28 · 15:55V. Salivonchyk30611851V. Vasyliev3611311113
V. Salivonchyk10
WOct 1 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.20121070V. Salivonchyk1.611412113LOct 1 · 09:25V. Salivonchyk1.4491111692O. Maslovskyi2.63118511113LOct 1 · 08:25V. Salivonchyk1.61114371M. Dunas2.2081111113WOct 1 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk1.67111110113A. Nikolenko2.10591281LOct 1 · 04:55V. Salivonchyk1.91991191O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 28 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.0041111113V. Salivonchyk1.73119841WSep 28 · 09:55M. Dunas2.5091131142V. Salivonchyk1.50119119113WSep 28 · 08:25H. Oliynyk1.4014760V. Salivonchyk2.751611113WSep 28 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.3810650V. Salivonchyk1.531211113WSep 28 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.1086100V. Salivonchyk1.671111123
V. Vasyliev10
WAug 17 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv1.36119941V. Vasyliev3.0061111113WAug 17 · 09:55V. Vasyliev2.101111113V. Salivonchyk1.674890LAug 17 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi1.5341111113V. Vasyliev2.38118851LAug 17 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.831111113V. Vasyliev1.839670LAug 17 · 04:55D. Kasian1.401213199113V. Vasyliev2.751411171172LAug 16 · 18:25D. Kasian1.57111293V. Vasyliev2.2591080WAug 16 · 17:25V. Salivonchyk1.539770V. Vasyliev2.381111113LAug 16 · 15:55O. Sapuzhak1.7311114113V. Vasyliev2.00691171WAug 16 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.6786111272V. Vasyliev2.101111910103LAug 16 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.5312711113V. Vasyliev2.381011891
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