TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Maslovskyi vs Orest Melnik 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115114––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Maslovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 51 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Oleksandr Maslovskyi at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 10–3 Orest Melnik Orest Melnik has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maslovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Maslovskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1197 vs Melnik 1254
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 80% vs Melnik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 60% vs Melnik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi +1 · Melnik +4
Melnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Maslovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 1.80 / Melnik 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maslovskyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240313
Maslovskyi1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 115 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it86% 79 of 92
Melnik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 37 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back15% 13 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi8wins
AwayMelnik2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaslovskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyi100%5 of 5
AwayMelnik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Maslovskyi4Melnik6n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Maslovskyi9Melnik1n = 10Maslovskyi took 9 of 10
S4Maslovskyi6Melnik2n = 8Maslovskyi took 6 of 8
S5Maslovskyi3Melnik1n = 4Maslovskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiMelnikMaslovskyi − MelnikBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.036.6+5.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime439 / 873 vs 165 / 35450.3%46.6%439 / 873 vs 165 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaslovskyiMaslovskyi 1.80/Melnik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maslovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Maslovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi33681181O. Melnik3811115113
WMay 15 · 04:55O. Maslovskyi5211713213O. Melnik4651111191
LMay 14 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi4449111192O. Melnik46111167113
WMay 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi50118812113O. Melnik45411111092
WApr 30 · 12:55O. Maslovskyi331111113O. Melnik166730
WFeb 27 · 12:25O. Maslovskyi4181111113O. Melnik30114871
WFeb 26 · 13:55O. Maslovskyi3841112113O. Melnik321151061
WSep 26 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi48115119123O. Melnik46511911102
WSep 25 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi45931111113O. Melnik4011113872
WSep 24 · 12:55O. Maslovskyi361411113O. Melnik2712870
O. Maslovskyi10
WOct 4 · 15:55O. Maslovskyi1.57118711113V. Vasyliev2.2561111792LOct 4 · 14:25O. Maslovskyi2.7581050M. Dunas1.401112113WOct 4 · 12:25O. Maslovskyi5.50851113113O. Maksymkiv1.13111181132WOct 2 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi2.38131311123H. Oliynyk1.5315113101WOct 2 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.36116101393A. Nikolenko3.00611121162LOct 2 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi2.506650M. Dunas1.501111113LOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113WOct 2 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi3.00119611123V. Hel1.36811119102LOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi4.009790O. Maksymkiv1.221111113WOct 1 · 09:25V. Salivonchyk1.4491111692O. Maslovskyi2.63118511113
O. Melnik10
WOct 4 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk3.5013791132O. Melnik1.281111116113WOct 4 · 13:55O. Melnik1.67129711113V. Vasyliev2.10101111992WOct 4 · 12:55M. Dunas2.205770O. Melnik1.611111113WSep 23 · 11:25O. Melnik1.501110118113O. Maksymkiv2.5091221152LSep 23 · 09:25A. Dulich1.36119812113O. Melnik3.00811111062LSep 23 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.33118511113O. Melnik3.2541111762LSep 23 · 06:25O. Melnik1.7351350D. Kozoriz2.001115113WSep 23 · 05:25V. Hel1.4410760O. Melnik2.631211113LSep 22 · 18:25O. Melnik2.006890D. Kasian1.731111113LSep 22 · 16:25V. Hel1.571111113O. Melnik2.259640
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.