TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Maslovskyi vs Valerii Hel 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1189116111191210
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched: 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 98 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Valerii Hel at 70.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 4–9 Valerii Hel Oleksandr Maslovskyi has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5070.0%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.4pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Hel
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1178 vs Hel 1227
Hel
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 80% vs Hel 20%
Maslovskyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 70% vs Hel 20%
Maslovskyi
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi -1 · Hel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Hel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 3.00 / Hel 1.363
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Hel)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229371
Maslovskyi3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 69 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back20% 31 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 91
Hel1.36
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite53% won 49 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it71% 37 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi3wins
AwayHel7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyi25%1 of 4
AwayHel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi4Hel6n = 10Hel took 6 of 10
S2Maslovskyi1Hel9n = 10Hel took 9 of 10
S3Maslovskyi2Hel8n = 10Hel took 8 of 10
S4Maslovskyi3Hel3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiHelM − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.740.2−6.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiHelBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 875 vs 134 / 25049.8%53.6%436 / 875 vs 134 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HelMaslovskyi 3.00/Hel 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maslovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 09:35O. Maslovskyi50139611113V. Hel49111111972
WAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4581115113V. Hel391171381
LJun 14 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi175660V. Hel331111113
LApr 17 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi239950V. Hel331111113
LApr 16 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi2274110V. Hel351111133
LApr 3 · 04:55O. Maslovskyi2797110V. Hel351111133
LApr 2 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi28122771V. Hel43101111113
WMar 12 · 10:25O. Maslovskyi48691111113V. Hel4511115992
LMar 11 · 17:25O. Maslovskyi381171281V. Hel4591114113
LFeb 14 · 09:25O. Maslovskyi3911131051V. Hel4571512113
O. Maslovskyi10
LOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113LOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi4.009790O. Maksymkiv1.221111113WOct 1 · 09:25V. Salivonchyk1.4491111692O. Maslovskyi2.63118511113WOct 1 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.506990O. Maslovskyi1.501111113WOct 1 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.75111311113M. Dunas1.40615681WOct 1 · 05:25A. Nikolenko3.0071111382O. Maslovskyi1.36115611113WSep 30 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi2.631111123H. Oliynyk1.4474100WSep 30 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.361211123A. Nikolenko3.00108100LSep 30 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi4.0049170O. Maksymkiv1.221111193LSep 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.386450M. Dunas1.531111113
V. Hel10
LSep 30 · 10:25D. Ponomarenko1.3311814113V. Hel3.258111271LSep 30 · 09:25V. Hel1.734121091V. Kheresko2.00111012113WSep 30 · 08:25V. Hel2.1071111113S. Kryvoshyi1.67116881LSep 30 · 06:55V. Hel2.5091131192D. Kasian1.50116119113LSep 30 · 04:55V. Hel2.638060D. Kozoriz1.441111113LSep 29 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.571112115113V. Hel2.25510131192LSep 29 · 17:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111133V. Hel1.8348110LSep 29 · 15:55D. Kasian1.6711711113V. Hel2.10711921LSep 29 · 13:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831214113V. Hel1.83101250WSep 29 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.36115115112V. Hel3.00511811133
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