TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Hel vs Denys Kozoriz 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811011611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:49 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 0-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 47 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Denys Kozoriz at 68.9%
47 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 1–4 Denys Kozoriz Valerii Hel has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Hel beat Kozoriz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:4968.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kozoriz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kozoriz
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1243 vs Kozoriz 1351
Kozoriz
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 20% vs Kozoriz 0%
Hel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 30% vs Kozoriz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel -4 · Kozoriz -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Kozoriz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (0%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 2.625 / Kozoriz 1.444
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kozoriz)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13218102
Hel2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 29 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Kozoriz1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 56 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it79% 46 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHel1wins
AwayKozoriz4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKozoriz leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKozoriz75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel1Kozoriz4n = 5Kozoriz took 4 of 5
S2Hel1Kozoriz4n = 5Kozoriz took 4 of 5
S3Hel2Kozoriz3n = 5Kozoriz took 3 of 5
S4Hel2Kozoriz2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricHelKozorizH − KBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match35.242.8−7.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 245 vs 273 / 50754.3%53.9%133 / 245 vs 273 / 507Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.634.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizHel 2.63/Kozoriz 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kozoriz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 29 · 11:55V. Hel48511811133D. Kozoriz43115115112
LSep 23 · 10:55V. Hel29116391D. Kozoriz4071111113
LSep 22 · 13:25V. Hel368111161D. Kozoriz4311138113
LMay 17 · 06:25V. Hel46561312102D. Kozoriz5511111110123
LApr 7 · 18:25V. Hel177730D. Kozoriz331111113
V. Hel10
LSep 29 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.571112115113V. Hel2.25510131192LSep 29 · 17:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111133V. Hel1.8348110LSep 29 · 15:55D. Kasian1.6711711113V. Hel2.10711921LSep 29 · 13:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831214113V. Hel1.83101250WSep 29 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.36115115112V. Hel3.00511811133LSep 23 · 10:55V. Hel3.00116391D. Kozoriz1.3671111113WSep 23 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.83411761V. Hel1.8311811113LSep 23 · 07:55V. Hel2.001111691O. Maksymkiv1.7313711113WSep 23 · 06:55A. Dulich1.614580V. Hel2.201111113LSep 23 · 05:25V. Hel1.4410760O. Melnik2.631211113
D. Kozoriz10
LSep 30 · 05:55D. Ponomarenko2.001114113D. Kozoriz1.7351230LSep 29 · 17:55D. Kozoriz1.61412791D. Kasian2.20111011113LSep 29 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.833740K. Tkachenko1.831111113LSep 29 · 14:55D. Kozoriz1.615590S. Kryvoshyi2.201111113LSep 29 · 13:25D. Kozoriz1.8391111882D. Ponomarenko1.83116811113LSep 29 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.36115115112V. Hel3.00511811133WSep 23 · 10:55V. Hel3.00116391D. Kozoriz1.3671111113WSep 23 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv3.758690D. Kozoriz1.251111113WSep 23 · 08:25A. Dulich2.50117681D. Kozoriz1.5051111113WSep 23 · 06:25O. Melnik1.7351350D. Kozoriz2.001115113
Upcoming Matches
V. Hel
D. Kozoriz
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.