TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Hel vs Vsevolod Kheresko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
41112101012911––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:22 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVsevolod Kheresko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 79 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Vsevolod Kheresko at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 5–4 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2254.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1242 vs Kheresko 1364
Kheresko
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 20% vs Kheresko 80%
Kheresko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 30% vs Kheresko 80%
Kheresko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel +1 · Kheresko +3
Kheresko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kheresko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.727 / Kheresko 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kheresko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13218554
Hel1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 54 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 41 of 56
Kheresko2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 56 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHel5wins
AwayKheresko4wins
4 of 9 to a deciderHel leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHel60%3 of 5
AwayKheresko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel5Kheresko4n = 9Hel took 5 of 9
S2Hel5Kheresko4n = 9Hel took 5 of 9
S3Hel5Kheresko4n = 9Hel took 5 of 9
S4Hel2Kheresko6n = 8Kheresko took 6 of 8
S5Hel2Kheresko1n = 3Hel took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricHelKhereskoH − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.141.1−2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 248 vs 230 / 44654%51.6%134 / 248 vs 230 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhereskoHel 1.73/Kheresko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kheresko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 17 · 14:25V. Hel32691161V. Kheresko3911116113
WJul 21 · 17:25V. Hel551281311113V. Kheresko49101115672
LJul 9 · 09:55V. Hel30118741V. Kheresko4291111113
WJun 14 · 12:55V. Hel4181111113V. Kheresko35119871
WFeb 5 · 08:55V. Hel331111113V. Kheresko239770
LJan 29 · 05:55V. Hel4212114692V. Kheresko521091111113
LJan 28 · 12:55V. Hel28311681V. Kheresko4111811113
WJan 20 · 14:25V. Hel527111112113V. Kheresko4811951492
V. Hel10
WSep 30 · 08:25V. Hel2.1071111113S. Kryvoshyi1.67116881LSep 30 · 06:55V. Hel2.5091131192D. Kasian1.50116119113LSep 30 · 04:55V. Hel2.638060D. Kozoriz1.441111113LSep 29 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.571112115113V. Hel2.25510131192LSep 29 · 17:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111133V. Hel1.8348110LSep 29 · 15:55D. Kasian1.6711711113V. Hel2.10711921LSep 29 · 13:55S. Kryvoshyi1.831214113V. Hel1.83101250WSep 29 · 11:55D. Kozoriz1.36115115112V. Hel3.00511811133LSep 23 · 10:55V. Hel3.00116391D. Kozoriz1.3671111113WSep 23 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.83411761V. Hel1.8311811113
V. Kheresko10
WSep 30 · 07:25D. Ponomarenko1.83811891V. Kheresko1.8311211113WSep 30 · 06:25V. Kheresko2.001211113S. Kryvoshyi1.7310390WSep 30 · 05:25D. Kasian2.003970V. Kheresko1.731111113LSep 20 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv1.8011115133V. Kheresko1.917911111WSep 20 · 17:25I. Fokin3.7511340V. Kheresko1.251311113WSep 20 · 15:55O. Maslovskyi3.2591181192V. Kheresko1.33119115113WSep 20 · 13:55M. Treschetka2.5011128962V. Kheresko1.50710111193LSep 20 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk2.20111179113V. Kheresko1.6197111182WSep 18 · 10:55M. Vivatenko1.835880V. Kheresko1.831111113WSep 18 · 09:55I. Fokin2.75712261V. Kheresko1.40111011113
Upcoming Matches
V. Hel
Nothing scheduled
V. Kheresko
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