TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Maslovskyi vs Orest Melnik 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113118611911511
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:19 and never touched: 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Maslovskyi to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 86 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Oleksandr Maslovskyi at 55.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 11–3 Orest Melnik Orest Melnik has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 13h before this match
Maslovskyi beat Melnik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1955.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Maslovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Maslovskyi
Wrong
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1222 vs Melnik 1252
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 80% vs Melnik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 70% vs Melnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi +3 · Melnik +1
Maslovskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Maslovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 1.727 / Melnik 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Maslovskyi)-2.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13244611
Maslovskyi1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 117 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it95% 59 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it86% 81 of 94
Melnik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 35 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back15% 13 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi8wins
AwayMelnik2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaslovskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyi100%5 of 5
AwayMelnik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Maslovskyi4Melnik6n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S3Maslovskyi9Melnik1n = 10Maslovskyi took 9 of 10
S4Maslovskyi6Melnik2n = 8Maslovskyi took 6 of 8
S5Maslovskyi3Melnik1n = 4Maslovskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiMelnikMaslovskyi − MelnikBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.735.7+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 875 vs 166 / 35650.4%46.6%441 / 875 vs 166 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaslovskyiMaslovskyi 1.73/Melnik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55%
Maslovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 16:55O. Maslovskyi331111113O. Melnik189540
LAug 13 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi33681181O. Melnik3811115113
WMay 15 · 04:55O. Maslovskyi5211713213O. Melnik4651111191
LMay 14 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi4449111192O. Melnik46111167113
WMay 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi50118812113O. Melnik45411111092
WApr 30 · 12:55O. Maslovskyi331111113O. Melnik166730
WFeb 27 · 12:25O. Maslovskyi4181111113O. Melnik30114871
WFeb 26 · 13:55O. Maslovskyi3841112113O. Melnik321151061
WSep 26 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi48115119123O. Melnik46511911102
WSep 25 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi45931111113O. Melnik4011113872
O. Maslovskyi10
WOct 4 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk1.5311116462O. Maslovskyi2.38761111113WOct 4 · 16:55O. Maslovskyi1.801111113O. Melnik1.919540WOct 4 · 15:55O. Maslovskyi1.57118711113V. Vasyliev2.2561111792LOct 4 · 14:25O. Maslovskyi2.7581050M. Dunas1.401112113WOct 4 · 12:25O. Maslovskyi5.50851113113O. Maksymkiv1.13111181132WOct 2 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi2.38131311123H. Oliynyk1.5315113101WOct 2 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.36116101393A. Nikolenko3.00611121162LOct 2 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi2.506650M. Dunas1.501111113LOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113WOct 2 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi3.00119611123V. Hel1.36811119102
O. Melnik10
WOct 5 · 06:25O. Melnik1.571111113V. Vasyliev2.257830WOct 4 · 18:55O. Melnik1.441111113O. Maksymkiv2.636890LOct 4 · 16:55O. Maslovskyi1.801111113O. Melnik1.919540WOct 4 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk3.5013791132O. Melnik1.281111116113WOct 4 · 13:55O. Melnik1.67129711113V. Vasyliev2.10101111992WOct 4 · 12:55M. Dunas2.205770O. Melnik1.611111113WSep 23 · 11:25O. Melnik1.501110118113O. Maksymkiv2.5091221152LSep 23 · 09:25A. Dulich1.36119812113O. Melnik3.00811111062LSep 23 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.33118511113O. Melnik3.2541111762LSep 23 · 06:25O. Melnik1.7351350D. Kozoriz2.001115113
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