TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Maksymkiv vs Volodymyr Vasyliev 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210911118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Volodymyr Vasyliev below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 64.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 5–1 Volodymyr Vasyliev Volodymyr Vasyliev has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0964.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Maksymkiv
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Maksymkiv
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1226 vs Vasyliev 1171
Maksymkiv
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 40% vs Vasyliev 60%
Vasyliev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 60% vs Vasyliev 40%
Maksymkiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv -1 · Vasyliev -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vasyliev form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.50 / Vasyliev 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240326
Maksymkiv1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 122 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 85 of 104
Vasyliev2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 22 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv5wins
AwayVasyliev1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv66.7%2 of 3
AwayVasyliev0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv3Vasyliev3n = 6split evenly
S2Maksymkiv4Vasyliev2n = 6Maksymkiv took 4 of 6
S3Maksymkiv4Vasyliev2n = 6Maksymkiv took 4 of 6
S4Maksymkiv4Vasyliev1n = 5Maksymkiv took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMaksymkivVasylievM − VBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.335.3+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivVasylievBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 773 vs 71 / 15152.1%47%403 / 773 vs 71 / 151Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaksymkiv 1.50/Vasyliev 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maksymkiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 17 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv33119941V. Vasyliev3961111113
WAug 10 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv4371113123V. Vasyliev3811611101
WApr 13 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv4381212113V. Vasyliev3911101081
WApr 12 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv3911611113V. Vasyliev29411681
WJan 3 · 13:25O. Maksymkiv45711511113V. Vasyliev4911911992
WDec 24 · 17:05O. Maksymkiv331111113V. Vasyliev187650
O. Maksymkiv10
LOct 4 · 15:25M. Dunas2.381491112113O. Maksymkiv1.53161181012WOct 4 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk3.25591291O. Maksymkiv1.33111110113LOct 4 · 12:25O. Maslovskyi5.50851113113O. Maksymkiv1.13111181132WOct 2 · 18:55M. Dunas2.5011115942O. Maksymkiv1.50671111113LOct 2 · 17:25O. Maksymkiv1.5751050V. Hel2.251112113LOct 2 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.2515111012123O. Maksymkiv1.331331214102WOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113WOct 2 · 12:25H. Oliynyk1.671011971O. Maksymkiv2.1012911113WOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi4.009790O. Maksymkiv1.221111113WOct 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.61651111113M. Dunas2.2011116382
V. Vasyliev10
LOct 4 · 18:25M. Dunas1.36121211123V. Vasyliev3.0010145101LOct 4 · 15:55O. Maslovskyi1.57118711113V. Vasyliev2.2561111792LOct 4 · 13:55O. Melnik1.67129711113V. Vasyliev2.10101111992WOct 4 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk1.731011461V. Vasyliev2.0012811113WAug 17 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv1.36119941V. Vasyliev3.0061111113WAug 17 · 09:55V. Vasyliev2.101111113V. Salivonchyk1.674890LAug 17 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi1.5341111113V. Vasyliev2.38118851LAug 17 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.831111113V. Vasyliev1.839670LAug 17 · 04:55D. Kasian1.401213199113V. Vasyliev2.751411171172LAug 16 · 18:25D. Kasian1.57111293V. Vasyliev2.2591080
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