TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Nikolenko vs Oleh Maksymkiv 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1513113101212141210
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:16 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Nikolenko above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 112 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 73.7%
112 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nikolenko 18–20 Oleh Maksymkiv Anatolii Nikolenko has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1673.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-20 in 38
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nikolenko 1061 vs Maksymkiv 1261
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 200 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nikolenko 60% vs Maksymkiv 100%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nikolenko 40% vs Maksymkiv 80%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nikolenko +2 · Maksymkiv +5
Maksymkiv
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNikolenko 3.25 / Maksymkiv 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229236
Nikolenko3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 41 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Maksymkiv1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite70% won 124 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it80% 86 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNikolenko2wins
AwayMaksymkiv8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNikolenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayMaksymkiv85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nikolenko3Maksymkiv7n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S2Nikolenko2Maksymkiv8n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S3Nikolenko2Maksymkiv8n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S4Nikolenko3Maksymkiv2n = 5Nikolenko took 3 of 5
S5Nikolenko1Maksymkiv2n = 3Maksymkiv took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricNikolenkoMaksymkivN − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.837.4−5.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNikolenkoMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 679 vs 401 / 76746.8%52.3%318 / 679 vs 401 / 767Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivNikolenko 3.25/Maksymkiv 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.7%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nikolenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 07:55A. Nikolenko48710111192O. Maksymkiv45111256113
LSep 30 · 12:55A. Nikolenko173590O. Maksymkiv331111113
WSep 3 · 11:25A. Nikolenko46121211113O. Maksymkiv291410141
LJun 15 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2046100O. Maksymkiv341111123
LJun 14 · 12:25A. Nikolenko3911115662O. Maksymkiv50981111113
WJun 10 · 12:55A. Nikolenko46118511113O. Maksymkiv4291111652
LMay 25 · 11:25A. Nikolenko218760O. Maksymkiv331111113
LApr 15 · 10:55A. Nikolenko184680O. Maksymkiv331111113
LMar 28 · 07:55A. Nikolenko36117991O. Maksymkiv4071111113
LMar 19 · 06:25A. Nikolenko2797110O. Maksymkiv351111133
A. Nikolenko10
WOct 2 · 14:25H. Oliynyk1.575880A. Nikolenko2.251111113WOct 2 · 12:55A. Nikolenko2.7591111113M. Dunas1.40116871LOct 1 · 10:55A. Nikolenko2.63101740M. Dunas1.441219113WOct 1 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.735680A. Nikolenko2.001111113LOct 1 · 07:55A. Nikolenko3.25710111192O. Maksymkiv1.33111256113LOct 1 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk1.67111110113A. Nikolenko2.10591281LOct 1 · 05:25A. Nikolenko3.0071111382O. Maslovskyi1.36115611113WSep 30 · 18:25A. Nikolenko2.00118911133M. Treschetka1.73711118112LSep 30 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.361211123A. Nikolenko3.00108100LSep 30 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.00118201182M. Dunas1.36211229113
O. Maksymkiv10
WOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113WOct 2 · 12:25H. Oliynyk1.671011971O. Maksymkiv2.1012911113WOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi4.009790O. Maksymkiv1.221111113WOct 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.61651111113M. Dunas2.2011116382WOct 1 · 07:55A. Nikolenko3.25710111192O. Maksymkiv1.33111256113LOct 1 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.4491111113O. Maksymkiv2.63115781WOct 1 · 04:55V. Salivonchyk1.91991191O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.3310890M. Dunas3.251211113WSep 30 · 16:55H. Oliynyk1.40101130O. Maksymkiv2.751213113WSep 30 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi4.0049170O. Maksymkiv1.221111193
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