TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Maksymkiv vs Valerii Hel 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012511––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched: 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Maksymkiv above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 61.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Maksymkiv 12–6 Valerii Hel Valerii Hel has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1161.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymkiv 1245 vs Hel 1187
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymkiv 80% vs Hel 0%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymkiv 70% vs Hel 10%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymkiv -1 · Hel -5
Hel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Maksymkiv) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymkiv 1.571 / Hel 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Maksymkiv)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229551
Maksymkiv1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 124 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it92% 61 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it80% 86 of 107
Hel2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog39% won 30 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back26% 12 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymkiv8wins
AwayHel2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymkiv85.7%6 of 7
AwayHel33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymkiv7Hel3n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S2Maksymkiv4Hel6n = 10Hel took 6 of 10
S3Maksymkiv6Hel4n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S4Maksymkiv8Hel2n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S5Maksymkiv2Hel1n = 3Maksymkiv took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymkivHelM − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.139.1+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymkivHelBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 768 vs 134 / 25352.2%53%401 / 768 vs 134 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivMaksymkiv 1.57/Hel 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv4213711113V. Hel371111691
LSep 17 · 18:25O. Maksymkiv34891161V. Hel4211119113
WSep 16 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3911125113V. Hel368101171
WSep 15 · 11:55O. Maksymkiv46471311113V. Hel44111111832
LJul 15 · 04:25O. Maksymkiv44111011842V. Hel50712911113
WJul 9 · 05:55O. Maksymkiv4411138123V. Hel4191111101
WJun 24 · 06:25O. Maksymkiv3411111113V. Hel29114681
WJun 23 · 13:55O. Maksymkiv46114911113V. Hel3941111942
WJun 17 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv45111011133V. Hel386129111
WJun 14 · 15:25O. Maksymkiv3711114113V. Hel35961191
O. Maksymkiv10
LOct 2 · 15:25A. Nikolenko3.2515111012123O. Maksymkiv1.331331214102WOct 2 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi4.5094111172O. Maksymkiv1.17111196113WOct 2 · 12:25H. Oliynyk1.671011971O. Maksymkiv2.1012911113WOct 1 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi4.009790O. Maksymkiv1.221111113WOct 1 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv1.61651111113M. Dunas2.2011116382WOct 1 · 07:55A. Nikolenko3.25710111192O. Maksymkiv1.33111256113LOct 1 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.4491111113O. Maksymkiv2.63115781WOct 1 · 04:55V. Salivonchyk1.91991191O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 30 · 18:55O. Maksymkiv1.3310890M. Dunas3.251211113WSep 30 · 16:55H. Oliynyk1.40101130O. Maksymkiv2.751213113
V. Hel10
LOct 2 · 15:55H. Oliynyk1.801311123V. Hel1.91118100LOct 2 · 13:55M. Dunas2.20511114113V. Hel1.6111881192LOct 2 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi3.00119611123V. Hel1.36811119102LSep 30 · 10:25D. Ponomarenko1.3311814113V. Hel3.258111271LSep 30 · 09:25V. Hel1.734121091V. Kheresko2.00111012113WSep 30 · 08:25V. Hel2.1071111113S. Kryvoshyi1.67116881LSep 30 · 06:55V. Hel2.5091131192D. Kasian1.50116119113LSep 30 · 04:55V. Hel2.638060D. Kozoriz1.441111113LSep 29 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.571112115113V. Hel2.25510131192LSep 29 · 17:25D. Ponomarenko1.831111133V. Hel1.8348110
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