TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Szymon Sporek vs Filip Mlynarski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711411117711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSzymon Sporek above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Filip Mlynarski at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Szymon Sporek 14–11 Filip Mlynarski Filip Mlynarski has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mlynarski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Sporek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sporek 1730 vs Mlynarski 1706
Sporek
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sporek 60% vs Mlynarski 20%
Sporek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sporek 60% vs Mlynarski 40%
Sporek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sporek +2 · Mlynarski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mlynarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSporek 2.00 / Mlynarski 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mlynarski)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274461
Sporek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Mlynarski1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 153 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it96% 78 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it82% 110 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSporek6wins
AwayMlynarski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSporek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSporek71.4%5 of 7
AwayMlynarski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sporek7Mlynarski3n = 10Sporek took 7 of 10
S2Sporek5Mlynarski5n = 10split evenly
S3Sporek3Mlynarski7n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S4Sporek7Mlynarski2n = 9Sporek took 7 of 9
S5Sporek2Mlynarski3n = 5Mlynarski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSporekMlynarskiS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.341.8+1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSporekMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 765 vs 189 / 33249.9%56.9%382 / 765 vs 189 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiSporek 2.00/Mlynarski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mlynarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 22:10S. Sporek4111118113F. Mlynarski35781191
WAug 29 · 17:40S. Sporek49111188113F. Mlynarski3986111132
LJun 29 · 00:45S. Sporek4813961192F. Mlynarski531111119113
LJun 28 · 22:30S. Sporek47113141272F. Mlynarski546111610113
LJun 28 · 20:30S. Sporek4681171192F. Mlynarski47117117113
WJun 27 · 23:15S. Sporek43101111113F. Mlynarski35126981
WJun 27 · 21:00S. Sporek531510125113F. Mlynarski531312101172
WJun 27 · 16:55S. Sporek4515118113F. Mlynarski371361171
LApr 28 · 02:00S. Sporek187470F. Mlynarski331111113
WApr 27 · 23:30S. Sporek43111011113F. Mlynarski32612681
S. Sporek10
WOct 10 · 16:05S. Sporek1.831411123J. Chmielowski1.83127100WOct 10 · 15:00S. Sporek1.911111113K. Kolodziej1.809650LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192
F. Mlynarski10
LOct 10 · 18:30J. Chmielowski2.001111119113F. Mlynarski1.7313791152WOct 10 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.8015116113D. Jadam1.911361171LOct 10 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.53111211982M. Kolek2.38914511113LSep 27 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.571111113F. Mlynarski2.258780LSep 27 · 22:35M. Kolek2.38136211113F. Mlynarski1.53111111452LSep 27 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.5711119111L. Pietraszko2.2513911133LSep 27 · 21:00M. Olbrycht2.0011311113F. Mlynarski1.73811571LSep 27 · 20:30F. Mlynarski2.50101191182J. Kuzmicz1.50128119113WSep 27 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.57114118113L. Pietraszko2.2581181182WSep 27 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.571111123M. Kolek2.2599100
Upcoming Matches
S. Sporek
Oct 10 · 20:30S. Sporek1.61D. Jadam2.20—Oct 10 · 21:00S. Sporek1.83J. Chmielowski1.83—Oct 10 · 22:55S. Sporek1.73F. Mlynarski2.00—Oct 10 · 23:45S. Sporek1.61D. Jadam2.20—Oct 11 · 00:10S. Sporek—M. Kolek——Oct 11 · 15:25S. Sporek—K. Kolodziej——Oct 11 · 16:55S. Sporek—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 18:05S. Sporek—J. Chmielowski——Oct 11 · 19:15S. Sporek—K. Staszczyk——Oct 11 · 20:30S. Sporek—F. Mlynarski——
F. Mlynarski
Oct 10 · 20:05F. Mlynarski2.75K. Kolodziej1.40—Oct 10 · 21:25F. Mlynarski1.57M. Kolek2.25—Oct 10 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.73J. Chmielowski2.00—Oct 10 · 22:55F. Mlynarski2.00S. Sporek1.73—Oct 11 · 00:35F. Mlynarski1.83D. Jadam1.83—Oct 11 · 15:00F. Mlynarski—K. Staszczyk——Oct 11 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—K. Kolodziej——Oct 11 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 18:50F. Mlynarski—J. Chmielowski——Oct 11 · 20:30F. Mlynarski—S. Sporek——
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