TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Filip Mlynarski vs Maciej Kolek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191214115911811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:35 and never touched: 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Filip Mlynarski at 63.2%
101 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 15–4 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 4 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3563.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mlynarski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-4 in 19
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 11 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1707 vs Kolek 1635
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 0% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 50% vs Kolek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski -5 · Kolek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.533 / Kolek 2.375
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Mlynarski)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13270097
Mlynarski1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 153 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it96% 78 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it82% 110 of 135
Kolek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 176 of 435
Down 0–1, comes back22% 56 of 252
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMlynarski7wins
AwayKolek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski100%5 of 5
AwayKolek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S2Mlynarski8Kolek2n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S3Mlynarski7Kolek3n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S4Mlynarski4Kolek4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMlynarskiKolekM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.933.3+5.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 330 vs 776 / 152857%50.8%188 / 330 vs 776 / 1528Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiMlynarski 1.53/Kolek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 22:35F. Mlynarski42111111452M. Kolek43136211113
WSep 27 · 17:40F. Mlynarski341111123M. Kolek2899100
WSep 26 · 22:55F. Mlynarski351311113M. Kolek2411580
WSep 26 · 20:05F. Mlynarski4111118113M. Kolek33671191
WSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski3851111113M. Kolek24118411
LSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski356116121M. Kolek4111511143
WAug 30 · 20:30F. Mlynarski4411114183M. Kolek345211161
WAug 23 · 21:50F. Mlynarski50118119113M. Kolek3861121182
WAug 23 · 15:25F. Mlynarski3851111113M. Kolek29117561
LAug 23 · 00:35F. Mlynarski32951171M. Kolek3911116113
F. Mlynarski10
LSep 27 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.571111113F. Mlynarski2.258780LSep 27 · 22:35M. Kolek2.38136211113F. Mlynarski1.53111111452LSep 27 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.5711119111L. Pietraszko2.2513911133LSep 27 · 21:00M. Olbrycht2.0011311113F. Mlynarski1.73811571LSep 27 · 20:30F. Mlynarski2.50101191182J. Kuzmicz1.50128119113WSep 27 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.57114118113L. Pietraszko2.2581181182WSep 27 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.571111123M. Kolek2.2599100WSep 27 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.40118912113J. Zochniak2.75311111092WSep 27 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.6111117113M. Olbrycht2.20481141WSep 27 · 00:35J. Kuzmicz1.4451171182F. Mlynarski2.63117117113
M. Kolek10
WOct 10 · 01:10K. Rudomina2.501151081M. Kolek1.5071112113WOct 10 · 00:45M. Kolek1.251181112113J. Wozniak3.7581181462WOct 9 · 23:55M. Kolek1.7311116113M. Marchlewski2.00591151LOct 9 · 22:05M. Kolek2.00119791K. Staszczyk1.7391111113LOct 9 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.0011117113M. Kolek1.73781151LOct 9 · 20:30K. Rudomina2.38611113113M. Kolek1.5311781182WOct 9 · 18:30J. Wozniak3.0051230M. Kolek1.361114113LOct 9 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.61101111153M. Kolek2.201279131WSep 27 · 22:35M. Kolek2.38136211113F. Mlynarski1.53111111452LSep 27 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.571111123M. Kolek2.2599100
Upcoming Matches
F. Mlynarski
Oct 10 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.73S. Sporek2.00—Oct 10 · 18:30F. Mlynarski1.73J. Chmielowski2.00—Oct 10 · 20:05F. Mlynarski2.75K. Kolodziej1.40—Oct 10 · 21:25F. Mlynarski1.53M. Kolek2.38—Oct 10 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.73J. Chmielowski2.00—Oct 10 · 22:55F. Mlynarski1.73S. Sporek2.00—Oct 11 · 00:35F. Mlynarski1.80D. Jadam1.91—Oct 11 · 15:00F. Mlynarski—K. Staszczyk——Oct 11 · 16:05F. Mlynarski—K. Kolodziej——Oct 11 · 17:40F. Mlynarski—D. Jadam——
M. Kolek
Oct 10 · 18:05M. Kolek2.00D. Jadam1.73—Oct 10 · 18:50M. Kolek2.63S. Sporek1.44—Oct 10 · 19:40M. Kolek1.91J. Chmielowski1.80—Oct 10 · 21:25M. Kolek2.38F. Mlynarski1.53—Oct 10 · 21:50M. Kolek2.00D. Jadam1.73—Oct 10 · 23:20M. Kolek1.91J. Chmielowski1.80—Oct 11 · 00:10M. Kolek—S. Sporek——Oct 11 · 15:25M. Kolek—J. Zochniak——Oct 11 · 16:55M. Kolek—K. Rudomina——Oct 11 · 18:10M. Kolek—M. Kukawka——
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