TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Kolek vs Filip Mlynarski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311611211114115
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 85 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Filip Mlynarski at 67.1%
85 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 3–15 Filip Mlynarski Maciej Kolek has won 3 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Mlynarski beat Kolek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mlynarski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-15 in 18
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 12 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1567 vs Mlynarski 1735
Mlynarski
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 20% vs Mlynarski 60%
Mlynarski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 20% vs Mlynarski 60%
Mlynarski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -2 · Mlynarski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.38 / Mlynarski 1.53
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Mlynarski)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13200798
Kolek2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 175 of 438
Down 0–1, comes back22% 57 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 114
Mlynarski1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 149 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it81% 106 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek2wins
AwayMlynarski8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek50%2 of 4
AwayMlynarski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek4Mlynarski6n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10
S2Kolek2Mlynarski8n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S3Kolek3Mlynarski7n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S4Kolek3Mlynarski4n = 7Mlynarski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekMlynarskiK − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.038.0−7.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime731 / 1458 vs 188 / 32750.1%57.5%731 / 1458 vs 188 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiKolek 2.38/Mlynarski 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.1%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 17:40M. Kolek2899100F. Mlynarski341111123
LSep 26 · 22:55M. Kolek2411580F. Mlynarski351311113
LSep 26 · 20:05M. Kolek33671191F. Mlynarski4111118113
LSep 13 · 16:05M. Kolek24118411F. Mlynarski3851111113
WSep 12 · 20:05M. Kolek4111511143F. Mlynarski356116121
LAug 30 · 20:30M. Kolek345211161F. Mlynarski4411114183
LAug 23 · 21:50M. Kolek3861121182F. Mlynarski50118119113
LAug 23 · 15:25M. Kolek29117561F. Mlynarski3851111113
WAug 23 · 00:35M. Kolek3911116113F. Mlynarski32951171
LJul 25 · 16:55M. Kolek203980F. Mlynarski331111113
M. Kolek10
LSep 27 · 23:45M. Olbrycht1.571111143M. Kolek2.2578120LSep 27 · 21:50J. Kuzmicz1.4011117113M. Kolek2.75551151LSep 27 · 20:05M. Kolek2.3891181162M. Olbrycht1.53118113113WSep 27 · 18:30J. Zochniak2.50811951M. Kolek1.5011411113LSep 27 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.571111123M. Kolek2.2599100LSep 27 · 16:55M. Kolek3.0010911131J. Kuzmicz1.3612115153LSep 27 · 15:45M. Kolek1.91129551L. Pietraszko1.80101111113WSep 27 · 00:10M. Olbrycht1.6141090M. Kolek2.201112113LSep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00101161142J. Kuzmicz1.36128118113LSep 26 · 22:55M. Kolek2.2511580F. Mlynarski1.571311113
F. Mlynarski10
LSep 27 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.571111113F. Mlynarski2.258780LSep 27 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.5711119111L. Pietraszko2.2513911133LSep 27 · 21:00M. Olbrycht2.0011311113F. Mlynarski1.73811571LSep 27 · 20:30F. Mlynarski2.50101191182J. Kuzmicz1.50128119113WSep 27 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.57114118113L. Pietraszko2.2581181182WSep 27 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.571111123M. Kolek2.2599100WSep 27 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.40118912113J. Zochniak2.75311111092WSep 27 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.6111117113M. Olbrycht2.20481141WSep 27 · 00:35J. Kuzmicz1.4451171182F. Mlynarski2.63117117113WSep 26 · 22:55M. Kolek2.2511580F. Mlynarski1.571311113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.