TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Kolek vs Jakub Kuzmicz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10129111151315––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 86 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 58.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 13–28 Jakub Kuzmicz Maciej Kolek has won 13 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-28 in 41
Kuzmicz
Correct
gap of 15 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1587 vs Kuzmicz 1803
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 20% vs Kuzmicz 40%
Kuzmicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 40% vs Kuzmicz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Kuzmicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kuzmicz) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 3.00 / Kuzmicz 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kuzmicz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13200803
Kolek3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 175 of 438
Down 0–1, comes back22% 57 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 114
Kuzmicz1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 397 of 634
Up 2–0, closes it98% 166 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it82% 277 of 337
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek2wins
AwayKuzmicz8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek33.3%1 of 3
AwayKuzmicz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S2Kolek5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolek3Kuzmicz7n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S4Kolek7Kuzmicz2n = 9Kolek took 7 of 9
S5Kolek0Kuzmicz5n = 5Kuzmicz took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekKuzmiczKolek − KuzmiczBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.345.6−5.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime730 / 1454 vs 714 / 124350.2%57.4%730 / 1454 vs 714 / 1243Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKolek 3.00/Kuzmicz 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek42101161142J. Kuzmicz50128118113
WSep 26 · 17:20M. Kolek4011126113J. Kuzmicz389101181
LSep 12 · 17:20M. Kolek4568111192J. Kuzmicz49111188113
LSep 5 · 00:45M. Kolek4588121162J. Kuzmicz511111108113
LSep 3 · 21:50M. Kolek4281112111J. Kuzmicz4511714133
WSep 2 · 13:50M. Kolek51111613113J. Kuzmicz4613141181
LAug 23 · 18:30M. Kolek336111061J. Kuzmicz3911512113
LAug 20 · 22:10M. Kolek3911691122J. Kuzmicz48711118113
LAug 19 · 22:55M. Kolek184860J. Kuzmicz331111113
LAug 14 · 23:55M. Kolek4813881542J. Kuzmicz5711111113113
M. Kolek10
LSep 27 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.571111123M. Kolek2.2599100LSep 27 · 15:45M. Kolek1.91129551L. Pietraszko1.80101111113WSep 27 · 00:10M. Olbrycht1.6141090M. Kolek2.201112113LSep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00101161142J. Kuzmicz1.36128118113LSep 26 · 22:55M. Kolek2.2511580F. Mlynarski1.571311113LSep 26 · 21:00M. Kolek1.6061191182D. Kostal2.10118115113LSep 26 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.5011118113M. Kolek2.50671191LSep 26 · 19:15M. Olbrycht1.5313911113M. Kolek2.381111671WSep 26 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.369101181M. Kolek3.0011126113WSep 26 · 16:30A. Wos1.83132111192M. Kolek1.83151184113
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 27 · 15:25J. Zochniak3.005101361J. Kuzmicz1.36111211113LSep 27 · 00:35J. Kuzmicz1.4451171182F. Mlynarski2.63117117113WSep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00101161142J. Kuzmicz1.36128118113LSep 26 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.306890D. Kostal3.401111113LSep 26 · 21:50M. Olbrycht3.501111113J. Kuzmicz1.288960WSep 26 · 19:40J. Kuzmicz1.2213113113A. Wos4.001131181LSep 26 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.5386110F. Mlynarski2.381111133LSep 26 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.369101181M. Kolek3.0011126113WSep 26 · 16:05D. Kostal3.001110101242J. Kuzmicz1.366121210113WSep 26 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.3311911113M. Olbrycht3.25711951
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
Sep 27 · 18:30M. Kolek1.50J. Zochniak2.50—Sep 27 · 20:05M. Kolek2.38M. Olbrycht1.53—Sep 27 · 21:50M. Kolek2.75J. Kuzmicz1.40—Sep 27 · 22:35M. Kolek2.25F. Mlynarski1.57—Sep 27 · 23:45M. Kolek2.38M. Olbrycht1.53—Sep 28 · 00:35M. Kolek1.83L. Pietraszko1.83—Sep 28 · 09:50M. Kolek—B. Czerwinski——Sep 28 · 10:35M. Kolek—M. Minda——Sep 28 · 12:15M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 28 · 13:05M. Kolek—A. Sobel——
J. Kuzmicz
Sep 27 · 19:15J. Kuzmicz1.30M. Olbrycht3.40—Sep 27 · 20:30J. Kuzmicz1.50F. Mlynarski2.50—Sep 27 · 21:25J. Kuzmicz1.28L. Pietraszko3.50—Sep 27 · 21:50J. Kuzmicz1.40M. Kolek2.75—Sep 27 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.50F. Mlynarski2.50—Sep 28 · 00:10J. Kuzmicz1.30M. Olbrycht3.40—Sep 28 · 03:20J. Kuzmicz—K. Kapik——Sep 28 · 04:00J. Kuzmicz—M. Rutkowski——Sep 28 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz—G. Poliniewicz——Sep 28 · 06:25J. Kuzmicz—M. Sklensky——
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