TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Alan Wos vs Maciej Kolek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315211118114911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlan Wos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlan Wos above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Alan Wos at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Alan Wos 9–6 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:27What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Wos
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wos 1568 vs Kolek 1644
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wos 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wos 40% vs Kolek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wos -2 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wos form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWos 1.83 / Kolek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13200117
Wos1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kolek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWos6wins
AwayKolek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWos leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWos83.3%5 of 6
AwayKolek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wos6Kolek4n = 10Wos took 6 of 10
S2Wos2Kolek8n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10
S3Wos6Kolek4n = 10Wos took 6 of 10
S4Wos5Kolek4n = 9Wos took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWosKolekW − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.136.5+1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWosKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 730 vs 727 / 144540.4%50.3%295 / 730 vs 727 / 1445Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekWos 1.83/Kolek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 18:30A. Wos2697100M. Kolek341111123
LAug 30 · 19:15A. Wos34961181M. Kolek4011117113
WJul 26 · 09:00A. Wos4411913113M. Kolek346111161
WJul 25 · 18:05A. Wos4012116113M. Kolek341071161
WJul 25 · 13:00A. Wos47118611113M. Kolek4691111692
LJul 10 · 13:05A. Wos341041191M. Kolek4112117113
WJul 4 · 16:05A. Wos3631111113M. Kolek26115371
WJun 27 · 19:20A. Wos45115117113M. Kolek3941191142
LJun 13 · 21:35A. Wos37118991M. Kolek3961111113
WMay 24 · 13:00A. Wos3811511113M. Kolek32811761
A. Wos10
LSep 26 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.4481111133A. Wos2.631165111LSep 26 · 14:35D. Kosmal1.6311121110113A. Wos2.1551451282WSep 26 · 13:25A. Wos1.301111113T. Piotrowski3.156260LSep 26 · 12:10B. Mleczko2.85381211113A. Wos1.35111110872WSep 26 · 10:55T. Filbrandt1.75118111182A. Wos1.95411313113WSep 26 · 09:20I. Dabrowski2.70311681A. Wos1.4111711113LSep 20 · 19:40A. Wos1.5712611101P. Blocho2.2514114123LSep 20 · 18:30A. Wos1.8397100M. Kolek1.831111123LSep 20 · 17:20A. Wos1.507850B. Sulkowski2.501111113WSep 20 · 16:05L. Pietraszko1.8064130A. Wos1.911111153
M. Kolek10
WSep 26 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.369101181M. Kolek3.0011126113WSep 26 · 15:00D. Kostal1.83711981M. Kolek1.8311811113LSep 22 · 00:10J. Mitas1.7311711133M. Kolek2.007118111WSep 21 · 23:45M. Kolek2.0011811113K. Staszczyk1.73411771WSep 21 · 22:55M. Kolek1.8311116113J. Chmielowski1.83991181LSep 21 · 21:00M. Kolek1.409111211102K. Kostyk2.75116145123WSep 21 · 19:40M. Kolek1.5391211113P. Blocho2.381110441LSep 21 · 18:30M. Kolek2.00812791J. Chmielowski1.73111011113LSep 21 · 17:20M. Kolek1.805690M. Minda1.911111113WSep 20 · 18:30A. Wos1.8397100M. Kolek1.831111123
Upcoming Matches
A. Wos
Sep 26 · 18:05A. Wos2.63M. Olbrycht1.44—Sep 26 · 18:50A. Wos2.00D. Kostal1.73—Sep 26 · 19:40A. Wos4.33J. Kuzmicz1.20—Sep 27 · 03:40A. Wos—D. Wasilewski——Sep 27 · 04:25A. Wos—G. Kesik——Sep 27 · 06:00A. Wos—T. Pisarczyk——Sep 27 · 06:50A. Wos—B. Mleczko——Sep 27 · 07:40A. Wos—K. Kufel——Sep 27 · 09:00A. Wos—D. Wasilewski——Sep 27 · 10:05A. Wos—D. Poloszczanski——
M. Kolek
Sep 26 · 19:15M. Kolek2.38M. Olbrycht1.53—Sep 26 · 20:05M. Kolek2.38F. Mlynarski1.53—Sep 26 · 21:00M. Kolek—D. Kostal——Sep 26 · 22:55M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00J. Kuzmicz1.36—Sep 27 · 00:10M. Kolek2.38M. Olbrycht1.53—Sep 27 · 15:45M. Kolek—L. Pietraszko——Sep 27 · 16:55M. Kolek—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 27 · 17:40M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 27 · 18:30M. Kolek—J. Zochniak——
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