TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Olbrycht vs Maciej Kolek 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4111012911––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:38 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Olbrycht above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 62.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Michal Olbrycht 12–7 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Olbrycht beat Kolek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Olbrycht
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Olbrycht
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1695 vs Kolek 1634
Olbrycht
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 100% vs Kolek 0%
Olbrycht
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 60% vs Kolek 40%
Olbrycht
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht +5 · Kolek -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 1.61 / Kolek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Olbrycht)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13200737
Olbrycht1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 87 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 64 of 77
Kolek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 175 of 437
Down 0–1, comes back22% 57 of 255
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht6wins
AwayKolek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht80%4 of 5
AwayKolek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S2Olbrycht5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Olbrycht8Kolek2n = 10Olbrycht took 8 of 10
S4Olbrycht4Kolek2n = 6Olbrycht took 4 of 6
S5Olbrycht1Kolek2n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtKolekO − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.635.5+1.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime378 / 796 vs 730 / 145347.5%50.2%378 / 796 vs 730 / 1453Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtOlbrycht 1.61/Kolek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 00:10M. Olbrycht2341090M. Kolek341112113
WSep 26 · 19:15M. Olbrycht4413911113M. Kolek351111671
WSep 10 · 21:00M. Olbrycht4281211113M. Kolek341110761
LSep 1 · 21:50M. Olbrycht4111511862M. Kolek45411811113
WAug 20 · 00:10M. Olbrycht43551111113M. Kolek4611118792
WJul 24 · 16:05M. Olbrycht341112113M. Kolek2341090
LJul 6 · 18:05M. Olbrycht4156111182M. Kolek46111149113
WMar 30 · 01:35M. Olbrycht331111113M. Kolek217860
LMar 29 · 23:05M. Olbrycht325121051M. Kolek44111012113
WMar 17 · 02:05M. Olbrycht331111113M. Kolek279990
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 26 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.831111113D. Kostal1.838870WSep 26 · 21:50M. Olbrycht3.501111113J. Kuzmicz1.288960WSep 26 · 21:25M. Olbrycht2.009111011113F. Mlynarski1.7311612992WSep 26 · 20:30D. Kostal1.831411891M. Olbrycht1.8316811113WSep 26 · 19:15M. Olbrycht1.5313911113M. Kolek2.381111671LSep 26 · 18:05A. Wos2.63611511113M. Olbrycht1.4411911492LSep 26 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.73841111123M. Olbrycht2.00111179102LSep 26 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.3311911113M. Olbrycht3.25711951WSep 17 · 13:50K. Kapik1.8088110M. Olbrycht1.851111133LSep 17 · 13:00M. Rutkowski1.6311911113M. Olbrycht2.05211971
M. Kolek10
LSep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00101161142J. Kuzmicz1.36128118113LSep 26 · 22:55M. Kolek2.2511580F. Mlynarski1.571311113LSep 26 · 21:00M. Kolek1.6061191182D. Kostal2.10118115113LSep 26 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.5011118113M. Kolek2.50671191LSep 26 · 19:15M. Olbrycht1.5313911113M. Kolek2.381111671WSep 26 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.369101181M. Kolek3.0011126113WSep 26 · 16:30A. Wos1.83132111192M. Kolek1.83151184113WSep 26 · 15:00D. Kostal1.83711981M. Kolek1.8311811113LSep 22 · 00:10J. Mitas1.7311711133M. Kolek2.007118111WSep 21 · 23:45M. Kolek2.0011811113K. Staszczyk1.73411771
Upcoming Matches
M. Olbrycht
Sep 27 · 15:00M. Olbrycht—F. Mlynarski——Sep 27 · 16:30M. Olbrycht—L. Pietraszko——Sep 27 · 17:20M. Olbrycht—J. Zochniak——Sep 27 · 19:15M. Olbrycht—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 27 · 20:05M. Olbrycht—M. Kolek——Sep 27 · 21:00M. Olbrycht—F. Mlynarski——Sep 27 · 22:55M. Olbrycht—L. Pietraszko——Sep 27 · 23:45M. Olbrycht—M. Kolek——Sep 28 · 00:10M. Olbrycht—J. Kuzmicz——
M. Kolek
Sep 27 · 15:45M. Kolek—L. Pietraszko——Sep 27 · 16:55M. Kolek—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 27 · 17:40M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 27 · 18:30M. Kolek—J. Zochniak——Sep 27 · 20:05M. Kolek—M. Olbrycht——Sep 27 · 21:50M. Kolek—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 27 · 22:35M. Kolek—F. Mlynarski——Sep 27 · 23:45M. Kolek—M. Olbrycht——Sep 28 · 00:35M. Kolek—L. Pietraszko——
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