TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maciej Kolek vs Michal Olbrycht 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118811113611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 62.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 7–12 Michal Olbrycht Maciej Kolek has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Olbrycht
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1580 vs Olbrycht 1670
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 40% vs Olbrycht 20%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 20% vs Olbrycht 60%
Olbrycht
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Olbrycht -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Olbrycht) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.38 / Olbrycht 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Olbrycht)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13200800
Kolek2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 175 of 438
Down 0–1, comes back22% 57 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 114
Olbrycht1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it82% 65 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek4wins
AwayOlbrycht6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek60%3 of 5
AwayOlbrycht80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek5Olbrycht5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolek5Olbrycht5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolek2Olbrycht8n = 10Olbrycht took 8 of 10
S4Kolek2Olbrycht4n = 6Olbrycht took 4 of 6
S5Kolek2Olbrycht1n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekOlbrychtK − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.536.6−1.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime731 / 1457 vs 379 / 80050.2%47.4%731 / 1457 vs 379 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtKolek 2.38/Olbrycht 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 00:10M. Kolek341112113M. Olbrycht2341090
LSep 26 · 19:15M. Kolek351111671M. Olbrycht4413911113
LSep 10 · 21:00M. Kolek341110761M. Olbrycht4281211113
WSep 1 · 21:50M. Kolek45411811113M. Olbrycht4111511862
LAug 20 · 00:10M. Kolek4611118792M. Olbrycht43551111113
LJul 24 · 16:05M. Kolek2341090M. Olbrycht341112113
WJul 6 · 18:05M. Kolek46111149113M. Olbrycht4156111182
LMar 30 · 01:35M. Kolek217860M. Olbrycht331111113
WMar 29 · 23:05M. Kolek44111012113M. Olbrycht325121051
LMar 17 · 02:05M. Kolek279990M. Olbrycht331111113
M. Kolek10
WSep 27 · 18:30J. Zochniak2.50811951M. Kolek1.5011411113LSep 27 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.571111123M. Kolek2.2599100LSep 27 · 16:55M. Kolek3.0010911131J. Kuzmicz1.3612115153LSep 27 · 15:45M. Kolek1.91129551L. Pietraszko1.80101111113WSep 27 · 00:10M. Olbrycht1.6141090M. Kolek2.201112113LSep 26 · 23:45M. Kolek3.00101161142J. Kuzmicz1.36128118113LSep 26 · 22:55M. Kolek2.2511580F. Mlynarski1.571311113LSep 26 · 21:00M. Kolek1.6061191182D. Kostal2.10118115113LSep 26 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.5011118113M. Kolek2.50671191LSep 26 · 19:15M. Olbrycht1.5313911113M. Kolek2.381111671
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 27 · 21:00M. Olbrycht2.0011311113F. Mlynarski1.73811571LSep 27 · 19:15J. Kuzmicz1.301111113M. Olbrycht3.407930WSep 27 · 17:20J. Zochniak2.38129111222M. Olbrycht1.531411710113LSep 27 · 16:30L. Pietraszko2.2511126113M. Olbrycht1.575101131LSep 27 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.6111117113M. Olbrycht2.20481141LSep 27 · 00:10M. Olbrycht1.6141090M. Kolek2.201112113WSep 26 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.831111113D. Kostal1.838870WSep 26 · 21:50M. Olbrycht3.501111113J. Kuzmicz1.288960WSep 26 · 21:25M. Olbrycht2.009111011113F. Mlynarski1.7311612992WSep 26 · 19:15M. Olbrycht1.5313911113M. Kolek2.381111671
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
Sep 27 · 22:35M. Kolek2.38F. Mlynarski1.53—Sep 27 · 23:45M. Kolek2.38M. Olbrycht1.53—Sep 28 · 00:35M. Kolek1.83L. Pietraszko1.83—Sep 28 · 09:50M. Kolek—B. Czerwinski——Sep 28 · 10:35M. Kolek—M. Minda——Sep 28 · 12:15M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 28 · 13:05M. Kolek—A. Sobel——Sep 28 · 13:55M. Kolek—J. Zochniak——
M. Olbrycht
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