TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Svoboda vs Daniel Tuma 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:56 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJan Svoboda to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Svoboda above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Jan Svoboda at 57.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jan Svoboda 2–0 Daniel Tuma Daniel Tuma has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5657.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1626 vs Tuma 1566
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 20% vs Tuma 40%
Tuma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Tuma 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -1 · Tuma -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.615 / Tuma 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Svoboda)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264734
Svoboda1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 21 days ago (Sep 18) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 15 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Tuma2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 165 of 342
Down 0–1, comes back29% 52 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSvoboda2wins
AwayTuma0wins
Svoboda leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSvobodaTumaS − TBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.524.0+13.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime21 / 37 vs 762 / 145856.8%52.3%21 / 37 vs 762 / 1458Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.61/Tuma 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 9 · 06:00J. Svoboda331111113D. Tuma206680
WAug 17 · 12:00J. Svoboda4291111113D. Tuma28115841
J. Svoboda10
LSep 18 · 12:59J. Svoboda1.837119101M. Sobisek1.8311511123WSep 18 · 12:30M. Sobisek1.671176111J. Svoboda2.1051111133LSep 18 · 11:30J. Svoboda2.109990J. Hradecky1.671111113LSep 18 · 10:30M. Vizek1.80811139113J. Svoboda1.91116111162LSep 18 · 09:28J. Svoboda1.919550M. Sobisek1.801111113WSep 18 · 08:00J. Svoboda2.00912511113M. Vizek1.73111011742WSep 18 · 07:30M. Sobisek1.6711145672J. Svoboda2.102121111113WSep 18 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.731111113J. Stolfa2.008770WSep 15 · 12:59J. Stolfa1.8088130J. Svoboda1.911111153LSep 15 · 12:30J. Svoboda1.73611101182V. Cermak2.00119124113
D. Tuma10
LOct 2 · 21:30D. Tuma1.8212881162S. Kadavy1.881011118113LOct 2 · 20:30J. Pozarsky1.67117411113D. Tuma2.1091111192WOct 2 · 19:30D. Tuma1.83111110113S. Kadavy1.83791281WOct 2 · 18:30M. Vizek1.67111011872D. Tuma2.10712411113LOct 1 · 17:30D. Tuma1.857740M. Sobisek1.851111113LOct 1 · 16:30M. Sobisek1.8312811113D. Tuma1.831011871WOct 1 · 15:30D. Tuma2.101111113K. Kapras1.676880WOct 1 · 14:30M. Vizek1.676117101D. Tuma2.1011511123LOct 1 · 13:28D. Tuma1.801011871M. Volf1.9112811113WOct 1 · 12:30D. Tuma2.201611113M. Vizek1.6114880
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